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Chômage et salaires en France sur longue période

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  • Pierre Villa

Abstract

[eng] Long-Run Unemployment and Wage Trends in France . Extremely old independent statistical sources make it easier to observe unemployment in France over a long period of time by enabling it to be evaluated directly rather than as a residual. The validity of the observations thus depends more on the representativeness of the sources than on the calculation method used. Data from before the First World War are less reliable as they concern union wages only. Unemployment rates are found to be the same in the 1950s as in the 1920s and at the turn of the century. « Modern » unemployment already existed at the beginning of the century, even though it affected only part of the population. . Since the Second World War, wage formation has developed towards longer term, index-linked collective contracts aimed at stabilizing the wage spread (labour agreements since 1936 and the new minimum wage policy since 1968). However, unemployment sensitivity has remained unchanged. The Phillips effect can still be observed when unemployment rises. Wage behaviour at the beginning of the century is almost the same as that at the end of the century. The blurring of this relationship in the 1930s is interpreted neither as a behavioural change nor as an erroneous measurement of unemployment, but rather as an effect of the economic policy. [fre] Chômage et salaires en France sur longue période . L'observation du chômage sur longue période en France est facilitée par l'existence de sources statistiques indépendantes très anciennes qui permettent d'évaluer le chômage de manière directe et non comme un résidu. La validité des observations dépend donc plus de la représentativité des sources que de la méthode de calcul. Les données qui précèdent la Première Guerre mondiale sont moins fiables puisqu'elles ne concernent que les salariés syndiqués. On retrouve, dans les années cinquante, les mêmes taux de chômage que dans les années vingt et au début du siècle. Le chômage « moderne » est déjà constitué au début du siècle, même s'il ne touche qu'une partie de la population. La formation des salaires a évolué depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale vers des contrats collectifs, de plus longue durée, indexés sur les prix, et visant à stabiliser l'éventail des salaires (conventions collectives depuis 1936, nouvelle politique du SMIC depuis 1968). Par contre, la sensibilité au chômage est conservée : on observe toujours l'effet Phillips quand le chômage augmente. Le comportement salarial est très proche au début et à la fin du siècle. Si cette relation est brouillée dans les années trente, nous ne l'interprétons ni comme un changement de comportement, ni comme une erreur de mesure du chômage, mais comme un effet de la politique économique. [spa] Paro y salario en Francia sobre un largo periodo . La existencia de muy antiguas fuentes estadisticas independientes que permiten evaluar el paro de manera directa y no como un residuo facilita la observaciôn del paro sobre un largo periodo en Francia. La validez de las observaciones dépende mâs de la representatividad de las fuentes que del método de calcule Los datos que preceden la Primera Guerra mundial son menos fiables debido a que solo conciernen a los asalariados sindicados. En los anos cincuenta, observamos las mismas tasas de paro que en los anos veinte y que a comienzos de siglo. El paro moderno ya esta constituido a comienzos de siglo, aun sf solo afecta a una parte de la poblaciôn. . La formaciôn de los salarios ha evolucionado desde la Segunda Guerra mundial hacia unos contratos colectivos de mâs larga duraciôn, indexados sobre los precios, con miras a estabilizar el abanico de salarios (convenciones colectivas desde 1936, nueva polftica del SMIC desde 1968). Sin embargo la sensibilidad al paro se mantiene : cuando el paro aumenta, observamos siempre el efecto Phillips. El comportamiento salarial es muy parecido a comienzos y a finales del siglo. Si esta relaciôn se détériora en los anos treinta, no las interpretamos como un cambio de comportamiento ni como un error de medida del paro, sino como un efecto de la polftica econômica. [ger] Die langfristige Entwicklung der Arbeitslosigkeit und der Lôhne in Frankreich . Die langfristige Beobachtung der Arbeitslosigkeit wird in Frankreich durch das Vorhandensein von unabhàngigen und seit sehr langem existierenden statistischen Quellen erleichtert, anhand derer die Arbeitslosigkeit direkt und nicht als Residuum bewertet werden kann. Somit hângt die Relevanz der Beobachtungen mehr von der Reprâsen- tanz der Quellen als von der Berechnungsmethode ab. Die Daten, die aus der Zeit vor dem Ersten Weltkrieg stammen, sind weniger zuverlâssig, da sie sich nur auf die gewerkschaftlich organisierten Arbeitnehmer beziehen. In den fùnfziger Jahren findet man die gleichen Arbeits- losenquoten wie in den zwanziger Jahren und zu Beginn des Jahrhunderts. Die Arbeitslosigkeit gibt es bereits Anfang des Jahrhunderts, wenn sie auch nur einen Tëil der Bevôlkerung betrifft. . Bei der Lohnbildung hat sich seit dem Zweiten Weltkrieg eine Entwicklung hin zu Târifvertrâgen vollzogen, die fur einen lângeren Zeitraum abgeschlossen werden, die an die Preise gebunden sind und auf eine Stabilisierung der Lohnskala abzielen (Tàrifvertràge seit 1936, neue Politik des garantierten Mindestlohns seit 1968). Dagegen bleibt die Reaktion auf die Arbeitslosigkeit unverândert; denn bei Zunahme der Arbeitslosigkeit lâBt sich nach wie vor der Phillips-Effekt feststellen. Am Anfang und am Ende des Jahrhunderts âhnelt sich das Lohnverhalten sehr. Wenn dièse Beziehung in den dreiBiger Jahren gestôrt wird, interpretieren wir dies weder als eine Ànderung des Verhaltens noch als einen Fehler bei der Messung der Arbeitslosigkeit, sondern als einen Effekt der Wirt- schaftspolitik.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Villa, 1995. "Chômage et salaires en France sur longue période," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 282(1), pages 47-64.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1995_num_282_1_5953
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.1995.5953
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.1995.5953
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bénédicte Reynaud-Cressent, 1984. "L'émergence de la catégorie de chômeur à la fin du XIXe siècle," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 165(1), pages 53-63.
    2. Pierre Villa, 1993. "Productivité et accumulation du capital en France depuis 1896," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(1), pages 161-200.
    3. Romer, Christina, 1986. "Spurious Volatility in Historical Unemployment Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 1-37, February.
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    1. Daniel Courgeau, 2000. "Le départ de chez les parents : une analyse démographique sur le long terme," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 337(1), pages 37-60.

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