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Europe centrale et orientale : des situations de plus en plus diversifiées

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  • Norbert Holcblat

Abstract

[eng] Central and Eastern Europe: Increasingly Diverse Situations . 1 992 may be the last recessionary year in Hungary and Poland, but the division of the Czech and Slovak Federal Republics will have a negative effect on their growth. Bulgaria and Rumania appear to have made less progress with their transition. . industrial production of between 30% and 45%, depending on the country, and the appearance of mass unemployment. . The price of the process of change under way since the beginning of 1990 has been high: a severe recession in Stabilization policies have helped to contain inflation and limit foreign trade deficits. However, the drop in tax receipts has created a budget deficit and Western investors are showing caution. [spa] Europa central y oriental : situaciones cada vez mâs divers if icadas . 1 992 sera, tal vez, el ultimo ano de recesiôn en Hungrîa y en Polonia. Por el contrario, la separaciôn de las repûblicas checa y eslovaca ejercerâ una influencia negativa sobre el crecimiento de ambas. En lo que concierne a Bulgaria y Rumania, estos pafses se hallan menos avanzados en la transiciôn. . El proceso de transformaciôn que comenzara a inicios de 1 990 conllevô un precio considerable : una recesiôn de la producciôn industrial de una gran amplitud, entre un 30 % y un 45 % segûn los pafses, y por otra parte, la apariciôn de un desempleo masivo. . Las polît icas de estabilizaciôn permitieron contener la inflaciôn y limitar los déficit exteriores. Pero, la baja de los beneficios fiscales engendra el déficit presupuestario y los inversores occidentales se muestran prudentes frente a ello. [fre] Europe centrale et orientale : des situations de plus en plus diversifiées . 1992 sera peut-être la dernière année de récession en Hongrie et en Pologne. En revanche, la séparation de la République tchèque et de la Slovaquie aura vraisemblablement une incidence négative sur leur croissance. Quant à la Bulgarie et la Roumanie, elles apparaissent moins avancées dans la transition. . Le processus de transformation engagé depuis le début de 1990 a eu un prix considérable : une récession de la production industrielle d'une très forte ampleur - entre 30 % et 45 % selon les pays - et l'apparition d'un chômage de masse. . Les politiques de stabilisation ont permis de contenir l'inflation et de limiter les déficits extérieurs. Mais la baisse des recettes fiscales engendre le déficit budgétaire. Et les investisseurs occidentaux se montrent prudents.

Suggested Citation

  • Norbert Holcblat, 1992. "Europe centrale et orientale : des situations de plus en plus diversifiées," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 260(1), pages 19-28.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1992_num_260_1_5699
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.1992.5699
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.1992.5699
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kent Osband, 1992. "Index Number Biases during Price Liberalization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 287-309, June.
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