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Les disparités internationales de comportements d'épargne

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  • Virginie Coudert

Abstract

[spa] Las disparidades internacionales de comportamientos de ahorro. Un análisis de los Estados Unidos, del Japon y de Europa a través del ciclo de vida - La concentración persistente de los desequilibrios exteriores en ciertos países índustrializados constituye un problema mayor en los años ochenta. La misma no refleja solo fenómenos reales o monetarios (competitividad, especialización, tasas de cambio) sino también diferencias de ajuste entre ahorro e inversion según los países. De manera particular, si bien los comportamientos de ahorro de los hogares divergen, éstos tienden a perpetuar, sin embargo, una division del mundo entre países deudores y acreedores. . Las grandes tendencias de la demografía pueden explicar estas disparidades. Tal hecho se puede demostrar mediante una simulación de las tasas de ahorro financiero fundada sobre el modelo del ciclo de la vida. Así, desde 1970, el aumento del ahorro en el Japon, se puede atribuir, en parte, al envejecimiento de la población activa, esto ha facilitado el financiamiento del deficit de los EEUU en dónde el rejuvenecimiento de la población tenía el efecto inverso. En el horizonte de los años 2005-2010, tales complementaridades entre grandes zonas deberan persistir, lo que mantendría los desequilibrios exteriores permitiendo su financiamiento. . Pero ciertas alteraciones espectaculares surgirían: así, la tasa de ahorro deberia restablecerse en los EEUU y bajaría de manera pronunciada en el Japon. Incluso, en Europa, los países del Sud y del Norte se opondrián porque sus evoluciones demográficas son diferenciadas. El rejuvenecimiento de la población prolongaria la baja del ahorro en los países mediterráneos; inversamente, las primeras fases del envejecimiento harian aumentar el ahorro en el Oeste y en el Norte, permitiendo a esos países responder a las necesidades de financiamiento crecientes de sus vecinos del Sud. [eng] Differences between Savings Behaviors in Various Countries. An analysis of the United States, Japan and Europe in Terms of the Life Cycle Hypothesis - The persisting concentration of foreign deficits in some industrialized countries was a major issue in the eighties. It did not only reflect real or monetary phenomena (competitiveness, specialization, exchange rate) but also differences, depending upon the country, in the adjustment between savings and investment. In particular, individual households behaved differently in relation to savings, but, on the whole, tended to perpetuate a division of the world between debtor countries and creditor countries. . Strong demographic trends may explain such differences. This is revealed in a simulation of the financial savings rate based on a life cycle model. Thus, since 1970, the increase in Japanese savings can partly be attributed to the aging of the active population. This facilitated financing the deficit of the United States where the fact that the population was getting younger had the reverse effect. By 2005-2010, such complementary attributes between large zones should continue, which would maintain foreign deficits while, at the same time, make it possible for them to be financed. . But dramatic reversals would take place: thus, the savings rate should rise in the United States and drop sharply in Japan. Within Europe itself, southern and northern countries would be opposed because there is a time-lag between their demographic evolution. A younger population would prolong the drop in savings in the Mediterranean countries. On the contrary, the first phases of an aging population would produce an increase in savings in the West and the North, allowing these countries to meet the increasing investment needs of their southern neighbors. [fre] La concentration persistante des déséquilibres extérieurs sur certains pays industrialisés est un problème majeur des années quatre-vingt. Elle ne reflète pas seulement des phénomènes réels ou monétaires (compétitivité, spécialisation, taux de change) mais aussi les différences d'ajustement entre épargne et investissement selon les pays. En particulier, si les comportements d'épargne des ménages divergent, ils tendent à pérenniser une division du monde entre pays emprunteurs et pays créditeurs. . Les tendances lourdes de la démographie peuvent expliquer de telles disparités. C'est ce que montre une simulation des taux d'épargne financière, fondée sur le modèle de cycle de vie. Ainsi, depuis 1970, la montée de l'épargne japonaise, peut être attribuée, en partie, au mûrissement de la population active ; ceci a facilité le financement du déficit des Etats-Unis où le rajeunissement de la population avait l'effet inverse. A l'horizon 2005-2010, de telles complémentarités entre grandes zones devraient persister, ce qui maintiendrait les déséquilibres extérieurs tout en permettant leur financement. Mais des renversements spectaculaires interviendraient : ainsi le taux d'épargne devrait se redresser aux Etats-Unis, alors qu'il baisserait vivement au Japon. Au sein même de l'Europe, les pays du Sud et du Nord s'opposeraient parce que leurs évolutions démographiques sont décalées. Le rajeunissement de la population prolongerait la baisse de l'épargne dans les pays méditerranéens ; à l'inverse les premières phases du vieillissement feraient remonter l'épargne à l'Ouest et au Nord, permettant à ces pays de répondre aux besoins de financement croissants de leurs voisins du Sud.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Economie et statistique.

Volume (Year): 232 (1990)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 49-67

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1990_num_232_1_5452

Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.1990.5452
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/estat

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Cited by:
  1. Loumrhari, Ghizlan, 2013. "Vieillissement démographique, longévité et épargne. Le cas du Maroc
    [Ageing population, longevity and save. The case of Morocco]
    ," MPRA Paper 50649, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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