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Apprécier une dévaluation

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  • Michèle Debonneuil
  • Henri Sterdyniak

Abstract

[fre] L'analyse des conséquences mécaniques de la dépréciation d'une monnaie est, dans cet article, menée dans une optique plus vaste que d'habitude; l'impact d'un changement instantané de parité est en effet étudié aussi bien pour le pays concerné que chez ses partenaires étrangers. Trois cas sont envisagés : dévaluation du franc, appréciation du dollar-yen, appréciation du mark- florin; pour chacun, le changement de parité est fixé à 10 % et est supposé être effectué contre toutes monnaies. Chaque cas de figure entraîne pour la France des évolutions spécifiques; il apparaît ainsi qu'une dévaluation du franc, si elle permet un gain de compétitivité qui favorise l'industrie, provoque d'entrée de jeu un prélèvement extérieur important. Les appréciations des monnaies étrangères mettent en évidence ce fait instructif : la situation la plus favorable pour la France est celle où le dollar est faible et le mark fort. [eng] Appreciating Devaluation - The analysis of the mechanical consequences of the depreciation of a currency is, in this article, carried out in a broader perspective than is usually the case, for the impact of the instantaneous change in parity is studied both for the country involved as for its foreign partners. Three cases have been considered : the devaluation of the franc, the appreciation of the dollar-yen, and the appreciation of the mark-florin. In each case, the change of parity amounts to 10 % against any other currencies. Each case studied creates specific trends for France. Thus, it emerges that, although a devaluation of the franc allows for added competitiveness which favours exporting industries, it brings about an immediate mouvement in the external balance which benefits the foreign countries. The appreciation of foreign currencies brings out clearly an enlightening fact : the most favorable situation for France is when the dollar is weak and the mark strong. [spa] Apreciar una devaluación - El análisis de las consecuencias mecánicas de la depreciación de una moneda se enfoca en este artículo, en forma más amplia de lo que se acostumbra; el impacto de un cambio instantáneo de paridad se estudia, en efecto, a la vez con relation a determinado país y a paises miembros extranjeros. Se examinan tres casos : devaluacion del franco, apreciación del dólar-yen, apreciación del marco- florin; para cada uno de ellos el cambio de paridad esta fijado en un 10 % y se supone que se lleva a cabo respecte a todas las monedas. Cada caso de figura acarrea para Francia evoluciones específicas; aparece por lo tanto que una devaluación del franco, si permite una ganancia de competitividad a favor de la industria provoca, a primera vista, una deducción exterior de consideración. Las apreciaçiones de las monedas extranjeras ponen de manifiesto un hecho instructivo ; la situation más favorable para Francia es cuando el dólar esta flojo y el marco fuerte.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Economie et statistique.

Volume (Year): 142 (1982)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 41-61

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1982_num_142_1_4594

Note: DOI:doi:10.3406/estat.1982.4594
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/estat

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