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Emploi et croissance à moyen terme

Author

Listed:
  • Jérôme Vignon
  • Pierre Villa
  • Catherine Girardeau

Abstract

[eng] Labour and growth in the medium term - Is it possible to consider a high economic growth-rate as a condition of full-employment renewal? The authors give a positive answer on this subject. In the first part of the article, they indeed reveal how, between now and 1980, growth of labour productivity and available labour-force would still be very speedy in France, even if the general rythm of activity slackened. In the second part of the article, illustrated by the macro-economic projection linked with the VIIth Plan prospects, they show the conditions which would allow a constant growth of 5,7 % per annum, liable to bring down the unemployment which became important at the end of 1975; the whole of these conditions constitutes a cramped process : regarding the general regulation of the economy, it is convenient that constant self-demand and expanding competitive supply be consistent; regarding the labour market and the firms, it is necessary to revalorize the humblest wage-earners labour (by means of proceedings dealing with weekly hours of work, retirement, and wages in particular) as far as they do not weigh too heavily on costs. [spa] Empleo y crecimiento a medio plazo - Es factible considerar una tasa de crecimiento como condición de un retorno al pleno ampleo? Los autores contestan afirmativamente sobre el particular. En la primera parte del artículo, ponen de manifiesto en efecto que desde aqui a 1980 el crecimiento de la productividad laboral y de las disponibilidades de mano de obra se verificaría todavía sumamente rápida en Francia incluso si se diera el caso de una merma del ritmo general de actividad.- En la segunda parte, ilustrada por la proyección macroeconómica vinculada con las perspectivas del VIIe Plan, senalan las condiciones en las que se podría realizar un crecimiento constante de un 5,7 % al ano, apto para menoscabar el desempleo que se manifesto a fines del ano 1975; el conjunto de esas condiciones remata en un proceso limitativo a nivel de la regulación general de la economía, es menester que la persistencia de la demanda autonoma y el desarrollo de una oferta competitiva sean compatibles; a nivel del mercado laboral y de la empresa, conviene revalorizar el trabajo de los asalariados más humildes (mediante hechos que abarcan especialmente la duración semanal de trabajo, los retiros y los salarios) sin que ello pueda gravar mucho los costes. [fre] Emploi et croissance à moyen terme - Un taux de croissance économique élevé doit-il encore être considéré comme une condition : du retour au plein-emploi? La réponse est sur ce point affirmative. Dans une première partie de l'article on montre en effet comment d'ici à 1980 la croissance de la productivité du travail et des disponibilités en main-d'œuvre serait en France encore très rapide, même en cas de ralentissement du rythme général d'activité. Dans une deuxième partie, illustrée par la projection macroéconomique associée aux perspectives du VIIe Plan, les auteurs dégagent les conditions dans lesquelles pourrait être réalisée une croissance soutenue de 5,7 % par an, apte à réduire le chômage apparu à la fin de l'année 1975; l'ensemble de ces conditions forme une voie étroite : au niveau de la régulation générale de l'économie, il faut rendre compatibles le soutien de la demande autonome et le développement d'une offre compétitive; au niveau du marché du travail et de l'entreprise, il faut revaloriser le travail des salariés les plus modestes (par des actions portant sur la durée hebdomadaire du travail, les retraites et les salaires notamment) sans trop peser sur les coûts.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Vignon & Pierre Villa & Catherine Girardeau, 1976. "Emploi et croissance à moyen terme," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 84(1), pages 23-36.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1976_num_84_1_2389
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.1976.2389
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.1976.2389
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    Cited by:

    1. Boyer Robert & Petit Pascal, 1982. "Forecasting the impact of technical change on employment : methodological reflexions and propositions for research," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8202, CEPREMAP.
    2. Robert Boyer & Pascal Petit, 1981. "Progrès technique, croissance et emploi : Un modèle d'inspiration kaldorienne pour six industries européennes," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 32(6), pages 1113-1153.

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