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Quels pays émergents ont été victimes d’un arrêt brutal des entrées de capitaux pendant la crise ?

Author

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  • Fabrice Berthaud
  • Stéphane Colliac

Abstract

[eng] The authors apply the method developed by Calvo, Izquierdo, and Mejia (2004) for identifying sudden stops in capital inflows to the 2008-2009 global crisis. The method makes it possible to identify the periods in which capital flows drop abruptly enough to create financing constraints that force a cutback in demand. This scenario occurred in 25 of the 35 emerging countries in our analysis, with a greater intensity in emerging Europe. Most of the economies concerned rebounded swiftly at the end of the crisis - a pattern observed in earlier crises of this kind. [fre] Cet article se propose d’appliquer la technique d’identification des arrêts brutaux des flux de capitaux (sudden stops) de Calvo, Izquierdo et Mejia (2004) à la crise mondiale de 2008-2009. Cette technique permet d’identifier les périodes où les flux de capitaux diminuent suffisamment brutalement pour engendrer des contraintes de financement de nature à forcer une réduction de la demande. Cela a été le cas dans 25 des 35 pays émergents inclus dans l’analyse , avec une intensité qui a été plus conséquente dans l’Europe émergente. Au terme de la crise, la croissance a redémarré rapidement dans la majorité des pays concernés, ce qui est un trait commun avec les précédentes crises de ce type.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrice Berthaud & Stéphane Colliac, 2010. "Quels pays émergents ont été victimes d’un arrêt brutal des entrées de capitaux pendant la crise ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 194(3), pages 129-136.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2010_num_194_3_8055
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2010.8055
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2010.8055
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    Cited by:

    1. Florian LALANNE & Irena PERESA & Sophie RIVAUD, 2019. "Portfolio investments and fragility in emerging economies: detection tools [Investissements de portefeuille et fragilisation des pays émergents : des outils de détection]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 226.

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