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Asymétries de transmission, incertitude additive et stabilisation monétaire en UEM : les enseignements dun modèle théorique

Author

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  • Marc-Alexandre Sénégas
  • Paul de Grauwe

Abstract

[eng] This paper examines, from a theoretical standpoint, how uncertainty affects the choice between a federal monetary policy based on national data and a policy based on union-wide aggregated data in a monetary union with asymmetrical monetary-policy transmission. We find that when additive uncertainty is introduced, the difference in the forecasting processes matters. In particular, if union-wide forecasting is more accurate than national forecasting, this can compensate the welfare loss arising from the use of union-wide aggregation. We conclude, however, that there is a strong case for using national information in the optimal design of the common monetary policy. [fre] Cette contribution se propose d’examiner d’un point de vue théorique comment le choix entre deux stratégies monétaires est infléchi par la présence d’une incertitude de type additif dans une union monétaire où prévaut par ailleurs une hétérogénéité sur le plan de la transmission de la politique monétaire. On montre que l’intérêt des autorités est en général de recourir à l’utilisation de données nationales, tant au niveau de l’élaboration de la stratégie elle-même que de celui du mode de calcul des prévisions qui leur sont associées dans un tel contexte.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc-Alexandre Sénégas & Paul de Grauwe, 2006. "Asymétries de transmission, incertitude additive et stabilisation monétaire en UEM : les enseignements dun modèle théorique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 173(2), pages 27-41.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2006_num_173_2_7937
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2006.7937
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2006.7937
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