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Évaluation de risques controversés par la théorie des options réelles

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  • Robert Kast
  • André Lapied
  • Sophie Pardo
  • Camélia Protopopescu

Abstract

[eng] Assessing Controversial Risks Using Real Options Theory . by Robert Kast, André Lapied, Sophie Pardo and Camelia Protopopescu . Public decision-making and risk assessment in such fields as environmental risk, industrial risk, disaster insurance, and health and unemployment insurance require dynamics to be taken into account and generally give rise to controversy. In order to use real options theory for these fields, we propose methods for constructing a virtual underlying security on the basis of a portfolio of traded assets. Real options theory will take care of dynamic aspects of the decision-making process while construction of the virtual underlying security takes account of various levels of controversy. Key-words : Real options, risks, collective choice, functional correlation coefficient, Kendall’s tau coefficent. JEL Classification : C13, C14, D81, G12, L32. [fre] Les problèmes de décision publique et l'évaluation de risques pour l'environnement, les risques industriels, l'assurance des catastrophes, de la santé et du chômage, etc., nécessitent de prendre en compte les aspects dynamiques et suscitent généralement des controverses. Afin d'utiliser la théorie des options réelles dans ces situations, nous proposons des méthodes de construction d'un sous-jacent virtuel à partir d''un portefeuille d'actifs négociés. La théorie des options réelles permet de prendre en compte la dynamique du processus de décision tandis que la construction du sous-jacent intègre différents niveaux de controverses. Mots-clés : Options réelles, risques, choix collectifs, coefficient de corrélation fonctionnelle, coefficient de Kendall. Classification JEL : C13, C14, D81, G12, L32.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Kast & André Lapied & Sophie Pardo & Camélia Protopopescu, 2001. "Évaluation de risques controversés par la théorie des options réelles," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 149(3), pages 51-63.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2001_num_149_3_6291
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2001.6291
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2001.6291
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    1. Robert Kast, 2011. "Managing financial risks due to natural catastrophes," Working Papers hal-00610241, HAL.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • L32 - Industrial Organization - - Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise - - - Public Enterprises; Public-Private Enterprises
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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