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Une évaluation empirique de la rationalité des étudiants et étudiantes belges (1954-1987)

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  • Jean-Luc De Meulemeester

Abstract

[ger] Schätzung von Gewinnen mittels Paneldaten: Endogenität des Humankapitals und Effekte der Selektion, . von Yves Guillotin und Patrick Sevestre.. . In diesem Artikel sollen zwei der Schwierigkeiten analysiert werden, die auftreten, wenn man empirische Tests von Gewinnfunktionen mittels Paneldaten durchzuführen wünscht. Erörtert werden somit zum einen die Verzerrungen, die sich aus der Korrelation zwischen dem ursprünglichen Humankapital, der Erfahrung und den nicht beobachteten individuellen Merkmalen (persönliche Fähigkeiten, innerhalb der Familie erworbene Kenntnisse usw.) ergeben, sowie andererseits die Effekte der Datenzylindrierung, wie die des Prozesses der Selektion der Individuen, die der Stichprobe angehören. Wir veranschaulichen diese beiden Problème durch verschiedene Schätzungen einer Gewinnfunktion, die man mit unterschiedlichen Verfahren anhand zylinderartig und nicht-zylinderartig ausgestalteter Stichproben aus dem Panel der jährlichen Lohndaten (DAS-Panel) des französischen Instituts für Statistik und Wirtschaftsstudien INSEE erhält. Aus diesen Schätzungen geht hervor, daß die Nichtberücksichtigung dieser Modell- und Datenmerkmale zu nicht unerheblichen Verzerrungen führen kann. [fre] Une évaluation empirique de la rationalité des étudiants et étudiantes belges (1954-1987), . par Jean-Luc de Meulemeester.. . Dans cet article, on évalue le degré de rationalité économique des jeunes belges qui se sont engagés dans des études universitaires de 1954 à 1987. On estime pour ce faire un modèle de toile d'araignée à la Freeman (1989), sous diverses hypothèses quant à la formation des anticipations. Un modèle récursif avec anticipations adaptatives et ajustement partiel est retenu. Les hommes ont des anticipations plus statiques que les femmes ; les anticipations ne sont pas rationnelles. On conclut en notant le caractère irréversible de l'investissement éducatif, dans un contexte de très haute incertitude. L'absence d'anticipations rationnelles ne peut dès lors permettre de conclure à une rationalité faible des agents. [eng] An Empirical Evaluation of the Rationality of Belgian Students (1954-1987), . by Jean-Luc de Meulemeester.. . This paper evaluates the extent of economic rationality among young Belgians taking university courses from 1954 to 1987. To do this, a Freeman cobweb model (1989) is estimated using various hypotheses as to the formation of expectations. Arecursive model with adaptive expectations and partial adjustment is selected. The men's expectations are more static than the women's; expectations are not rational. The conclusion considers the irreversible nature of the educational investment and ends on a note of extremely high uncertainty. Consequently, the absence of rational expectations cannot lead to a conclusion of low rationality among the agents. [spa] Una evaluación empírica de la racionalidad de los estudiantes belgas (1954-1987), . por Jean-Luc de Meulemeester.. . En este artículo se evalúa el grado de racionalidad económica de los jóvenes belgas que han iniciado estudios universitarios entre 1954 y 1987. Se estima para ello un modelo de tela de araña del tipo de Freeman (1989), bajo diversas hipótesis en cuanto a la formación de las anticipaciones. Se ha escogido un modelo recursivo con anticipaciones adaptativas y ajuste partial. Los hombres tienen anticipaciones más estáticas que las mujeres; las anticipaciones no son rationales. Para concluir se advierte el carácter irreversible de la inversión en educación, en un contexte de gran incertidumbre. La falta de anticipaciones rationales no nos permite concluir entonces que la racionalidad de los agentes sea baja.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 116 (1994)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 137-153

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1994_num_116_5_5703

Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1994.5703
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecop

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  1. Siow, Aloysius, 1984. "Occupational Choice under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 631-45, May.
  2. Benhabib, Jess & Day, Richard H, 1981. "Rational Choice and Erratic Behaviour," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 459-71, July.
  3. Freeman, Richard B, 1975. "Supply and Salary Adjustments to the Changing Science Manpower Market: Physics, 1948-1973," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(1), pages 27-39, March.
  4. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
  5. Levhari, David & Weiss, Yoram, 1974. "The Effect of Risk on the Investment in Human Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 950-63, December.
  6. Freeman, Richard B, 1975. "Legal "Cobwebs": A Recursive Model of the Market for New Lawyers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(2), pages 171-79, May.
  7. Yoram Ben-Porath, 1967. "The Production of Human Capital and the Life Cycle of Earnings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 352.
  8. Heiner, Ronald A., 1989. "The origin of predictable dynamic behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 233-257, October.
  9. Richard B. Freeman, 1976. "A cobweb model of the supply and starting salary of new engineers," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 29(2), pages 236-248, January.
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