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L'apport du Q de Tobin à la modélisation de l'investissement en France

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  • Anne Epaulard

Abstract

[eng] The Contribution of Tobin's Q Theory to Investment Modelling in France, . by Anne Epaulard.. . This article looks at the aptness of Tobin's q theory in modelling the investment behaviour of French companies. Tests on independent hypotheses provide a measurement of the contribuuon of Tobin's q theory by comparing the performances of this model with those of the accelerator, profit and profitability. Two alternative concepts are then used to justify the simultaneous presence of the accelerator and Tobin's q in investment equations at a maaoeconomic level. The first concept assumes that some of the companies have restricted markets. A dual-system model is therefore estimated (accelaator - Tobin's q) with satisfactory empirical performances, which highlight the fact that the two systems followed one another and sometimes coexisted ova the period from 1974 to 1989. The second concept consists of introducing the hypothesis of monopolistic competition into the theoretical model and econometric estimates. [ger] Der Beitrag des Tobin-q zur Modellierung der Investitionstätigkeit in Frankreich, . von Anne Epaulard.. . Dieser Artikel behandelt erneut die Relevanz des Tobin-q-Modelles für die Modellierung des Investitionsverhaltens der französischen Unternehmen. Anhand von Tests mit voneinander unabhängigen Hypothesen kann der Beitrag des Tobin-q durch den Vagleich der leistungsfähigkeit dieses Modells mit der des Akzelerators, des Gewinns und der Rentabilität gemessen werden. Danach werden zwei alternative Betrachtungsweisen untersucht, mit denen sich auf gesamtwirtschaftlicher Ebene die gleichzeitige Anwesenheit des Akzelerators und des Tobin-q in den Investitionsgleichungen rechtfertigen läßt. Bei der asten Betrachtungsweise wird von der Vermutung ausgegangen, daß fur einen Teil der Unternehmen wegen da Absatzmärkte Zwänge bestehen. Deshalb wird ein Modell mit zwei Bestimmungsfaktoren geschätzt (Akzelerator - Tobin-q); dessen empirische Leistungsfahigkeit aweist sich als zufriedenstellend und verdeutlicht, daß die beiden Bestimmungsfaktoren nacheinander und wàhrend des Zeitraums von 1974 bis 1989 manchmal sogar parallel zur Anwendung kamen. Bei der zweiten Betrachtungsweise wird die Hypothèse der monopolistischen Konkurrenz in das theoretische Modell und in die ökonometrischen Schätzungen aufgenommen. [spa] La aportación del Q de Tobin para la modelización de las inversiones en Francia, . por Anne Epaulard.. . Este artículo vuelve a tratar de la pertinencia del modelo en Q de Tobin para la modelización del comportamiento de la inversión de las empresas francesas. Diversos tests de hipótesis no encajadas permiten medir la aportación del Q de Tobin por comparación de los resultados de este modelo con aquellos del acelerador, del beneficio y de la beneficiabilidad. Acto seguido, se aplican dos visiones altemativas que permiten justificar, a nivel maaoeconómico, la presencia simultánea del acelerador y del Q de Tobin en las ecuaciones de inversión. La primera consiste en suponer que una parte de las empresas se ve apremiada en sus salidas. Se estima en este caso un modelo de dos regínenes (acelerador - Q de Tobin) cuyos resultados empíricos son satisfactorios y vienen a subrayar que los dos regímenes se han sucedido y que, en ciertos casos, han coexistido durante el periodo 1974-1989. La segunda visión consiste en introducir la hipótesis de la competencia monopolística en el modelo teórico y las estimaciones econométricas. [fre] L'apport du Q de Tobin à la modélisation de l'investissement en France, . par Anne Epaulard.. . Cet article revient sur la pertinence du modèle en Q de Tobin pour la modélisation du comportement d'investissement des entreprises françaises. Des tests d'hypothèses non emboîtées permettent de mesurer l'apport du Q de Tobin en comparant les performances de ce modèle à celles de l'accélérateur, du profit et de la profitabilité. Nous exploitons ensuite deux visions alternatives permettant de justifier, au niveau maao-économique, la présence simultanée de l'accélérateur et du Q de Tobin dans les équations d'investissement. La première consiste à supposer qu'une partie des entreprises est contrainte dans ses débouchés. Nous estimons alors un modèle à deux régimes (accélérateur - Q de Tobin) dont les performances empiriques sont satisfaisantes et soulignent que les deux régimes se sont succédé et ont parfois coexisté sur la période 1974-1989. La seconce vision consiste à introduire l'hypothèse de concurrence monopolistique dans le modèle théorique et les estimations économétriques.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 109 (1993)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 1-12

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1993_num_109_3_5616

Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1993.5616
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecop

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  1. Robert E. Lucas & Jr., 1967. "Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 321.
  2. Schiantarelli, F. & Georgoutsos, D., 1990. "Monopolistic competition and the Q theory of investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1061-1078, July.
  3. Fumio Hayashi, 1981. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average a : A Neoclassical Interpretation," Discussion Papers 457, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  4. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
  5. Omar LICANDRO, 1992. "Investment Dynamics and Capacity Utilization under Monopolistic Competition," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 27, pages 91-113.
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  1. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00435685 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Ngongang, Elie, 2012. "Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Financial Variables on Investment Behavior in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) Countries," Review of Applied Economics, Review of Applied Economics, vol. 8(1).

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