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L'instabilité de la détermination du taux de change dans un modèle monétariste

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  • Jacques Luzi
  • Jamel Trabelsi

Abstract

[fre] L'instabilité de la détermination du taux de change dans un modèle monétariste, . par Jacques Luzi, Jamel Trabelsi.. . Cet article étudie et compare les comportements à court terme du taux de change nominal et du niveau des prix domestiques dans un modèle d'équilibre à anticipations rationnelles. L'ampleur excessive des mouvements du taux de change nominal résulte de l'influence des anticipations de change sur le niveau des prix domestiques et des anticipations de prix sur le taux de change nominal. Une simulation atteste la plausibilité de ce résultat pour les évolutions du taux de change dollar / yen et du niveau des prix américains. [eng] The Instability of Establishing the Exchange Rate in an Open Economy, . by Jacques Luzi, Jamel Trabelsi.. . This paper examines the short-term behaviour of the nominal exchange rate and the domestic price level and compares them with one another using an equilibrium model with rational expectations. The huge volume of nominal exchange rate movements is due to the influence of the exchange rate expectations on the domesticprice level and that of price expectations on the nominal exchange rate. The plausibility of these findings for changes in the dollar / yen exchange rate and the level of prices in America is confirmed in a simulation. [ger] Die Instabilität der Bestimmung des Wechselkurses in einem monetaristischen Modell, . von Jacques Luzi, Jamel Trabelsi.. . In diesem Artikel werden die kurzfristigen Verhaltensweisen des nominalen Wechselkurses und des inländischen Preisniveaus in einem Gleichgewichtsmodell mit rationalen Vorwegnahmen untersucht und miteinander verglichen. Die übermäßigen Schwankungen des nominalen Wechselkurses ergeben sich aus dem Einfluß der Wechselkursvorwegnahmen auf das inländische Preisniveau und der Preisvorwegnahmen auf den nominalen Wechselkurs. Eine Simulation bescheinigt die Plausibilität dieses Ergebnisses für die Entwicklungen des Dollar / Yen- Wechselkurses und des Niveaus der amerikanischen Preise. [spa] Inestabilidad de la determinación de los tipos de cambio en un modelo monetarista, . por Jacques Luzi y Jamel Trabelsi.. . En el presente artículo se estudia y se compara el comportamiento a corto plazo del tipo de cambio nominal y del nivel de los precios domésticos, en un modelo de equilibrio fundado en antitipaciones racionales. La variación excesiva del tipo de cambio nominal se debe a la influencia de las anticipaciones de cambio sobre el nivel de los precios domésticos y a la influencia de las anticipaciones de precios sobre el tipo de cambio nominal. Una simulación demuestra la plausibilidad de estos resultados para la evolución del tipo de cambio dólar/yen y del nivel de precios en los Estados Unidos.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques Luzi & Jamel Trabelsi, 1992. "L'instabilité de la détermination du taux de change dans un modèle monétariste," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 104(3), pages 73-85.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1992_num_104_3_5294
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.1992.5294
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1992.5294
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    References listed on IDEAS

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