IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prg/jnlpep/v2009y2009i2id345p114-130.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Primary balance, public debt and fiscal variables in postsocialist members of the european union

Author

Listed:
  • Vratislav Izák

Abstract

The primary balance has influenced the unit costs of debt servicing in 10 postsocialist members of the EU. The effects of the GDP growth and the inflation are equally robust and significant. The coefficients of lagged debt are at variance with the expectations from Bohn's 1998 paper, and one cannot speak until now about the corrective actions of fiscal authorities in these countries. Only Poland has had on average a higher real long-term interest rate than the growth rate. Other countries could stabilize their debt-GDP ratio by running a primary deficit. But comparing the level of investment with profits only in Slovenia one can speak about the dynamic inefficiency. Especially in the Czech Republic and Slovakia the relationship between debt and deficit is blurred by high negative stock-flow adjustments.

Suggested Citation

  • Vratislav Izák, 2009. "Primary balance, public debt and fiscal variables in postsocialist members of the european union," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(2), pages 114-130.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2009:y:2009:i:2:id:345:p:114-130
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.345
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pep.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.pep.345.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://pep.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.pep.345.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18267/j.pep.345?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    3. Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1989. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19.
    4. Ardagna Silvia & Caselli Francesco & Lane Timothy, 2007. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, August.
    5. Ardagna, Silvia & Caselli, Francesco & Lane, Timothy, 2004. "Fiscal discipline and the cost of public dept service: some estiames for OECD countries," Working Paper Series 411, European Central Bank.
    6. David E. Lebow, 2004. "Recent fiscal policy in selected industrial countries," BIS Working Papers 162, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Mr. Francesco Caselli, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 1998/055, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Ball, Laurence & Elmendorf, Douglas W & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1998. "The Deficit Gamble," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(4), pages 699-720, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vratislav Izák, 2008. "Udržitelnost veřejných financí a dynamická efektivnost [Public finance sustainability and dynamic efficiency]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(2), pages 162-181.
    2. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    3. Masaya Sakuragawa & Kaoru Hosono, 2010. "Fiscal Sustainability Of Japan: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 517-537, December.
    4. Stefano Schiavo, 2005. "Euro bonds: in search of financial spillovers," Sciences Po publications 2, Sciences Po.
    5. Herrera, Santiago & Youssef, Hoda & Youssef, Hoda & Zaki, Chahir, 2010. "Egypt beyond the crisis : medium-term challenges for sustained growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5451, The World Bank.
    6. Javier Andrés & Rafael Doménech, 2006. "Fiscal Rules and Macroeconomic Stability," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 176(1), pages 9-41, April.
    7. John Farrugia & Owen, Grech, 2013. "Assessing the sustainability of Maltese government debt," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2013, Central Bank of Malta.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7162 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Pica Giovanni, 2010. "Capital Markets Integration and Labor Market Institutions," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-57, March.
    10. Julia, Knolle, 2014. "An Empirical Comparison of Interest and Growth Rates," MPRA Paper 59520, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/9909 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2015. "Dealing with debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 43-55.
    14. Panizza, Ugo & Fatás, Antonio & Ghosh, Atish R. & ,, 2019. "The Motives to Borrow," CEPR Discussion Papers 13735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Warwick J. McKibbin & Andrew B. Stoeckel & YingYing Lu, 2014. "Global Fiscal Adjustment and Trade Rebalancing," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(7), pages 892-922, July.
    16. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Francesco Saraceno, 2007. "Normes sociales et politiques européennes," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 283-314.
    17. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2014. "Fiscal adjustment and the costs of public debt service: evidence from OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(22), pages 2593-2610, August.
    18. Stefan Collignon, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Rules and the Sustainability of Public Debt in Europe," RECON Online Working Papers Series 28, RECON.
    19. Andreas Thams, 2006. "Fiscal Policy Effects in the European Union," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-016, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    20. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    21. Aldama, Pierre & Creel, Jérôme, 2019. "Fiscal policy in the US: Sustainable after all?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 471-479.
    22. Tilak Abeysinghe & Ananda Jayawickrama, 2013. "A segmented trend model to assess fiscal sustainability: The US experience 1929–2009," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1129-1141, June.
    23. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma, 2007. "Mr. Wicksell and the global economy: What drives real interest rates?," Working Papers 2007-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    public debt; primary balance; panel analysis; postsocialist members of EU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2009:y:2009:i:2:id:345:p:114-130. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stanislav Vojir (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/uevsecz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.