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Initial diagnostics of a regional adjustment model

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Author Info

  • G F Mulligan
  • A C Vias
  • S M Glavac

Abstract

Adjustment models are used increasingly to analyze population and employment changes inregional economies. However, questions remain about the most appropriate geographic scales and time lags for these models. In this paper we estimate a well-known adjustment model for a recent 25-year period in the USA. Regional population and employment changes (levels and densities) are examined at three scales (states, Bureau of Economic Analysis regions, counties) using various time lags (one to ten years). Two-stage least squares regression estimates, based on Regional Economic Information System data running between 1969 and 1994, are generated and discussed. Analysis is restricted to the core relationships between population and employment; the roles of other exogenous variables, normally included in adjustment models, are not considered. Instead, concern is focused on issues such as stability and directional causality of the interacting population - employment systems. Some brief suggestions regarding future research conclude the paper.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Pion Ltd, London in its journal Environment and Planning A.

Volume (Year): 31 (1999)
Issue (Month): 5 (May)
Pages: 855-876

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Handle: RePEc:pio:envira:v:31:y:1999:i:5:p:855-876

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Web page: http://www.pion.co.uk

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Cited by:
  1. Jae Kim & Geoffrey Hewings, 2012. "Integrating the fragmented regional and subregional socioeconomic forecasting and analysis: a spatial regional econometric input–output framework," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 485-513, October.
  2. Gordon Mulligan & Alexander Vias, 2006. "Growth and change in U.S. micropolitan areas," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 203-228, June.
  3. Bernard Trendle, 2009. "The Determinants of Population and Employment Growth in Small Queensland Regions," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(2), pages 295-307, September.
  4. John Carruthers & Ralph Mclaughlin & Marlon Boarnet, 2006. "Does State Growth Management Change the Pattern of Urban Growth? Evidence From Florida," ERSA conference papers ersa06p544, European Regional Science Association.
  5. Boarnet, Marlon G. & Chalermpong, Saksith & Geho, Elizabeth, 2001. "Specification Issues in Models of Population and Employment Growth," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt5fn0m74n, University of California Transportation Center.
  6. Geoffrey Hewings & Jae Hong Kim, 2011. "An Application of the Disequilibrium Adjustment Framework to Small Area Forecasting and Impact Analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1839, European Regional Science Association.
  7. Simon Choi & Changkeun Park & JiYoung Park, 2014. "A spatio-temporal analysis of population and employment growth for Southern California," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 19-40, January.
  8. Funderburg, Richard G. & Nixon, Hilary & Boarnet, Marlon G. & Ferguson, Gavin, 2010. "New highways and land use change: Results from a quasi-experimental research design," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 76-98, February.
  9. John I. CARRUTHERS & Michael K. HOLLAR & Gordon F. MULLIGAN, 2008. "Growth And Convergence In The Space Economy : Evidence From The United States," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 27, pages 35-60.
  10. Jens Abildtrup & Virginie Piguet & Bertrand Schmitt, 2011. "The impact of agro-food industry on employment and population changes: The case of Denmark and France'," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1622, European Regional Science Association.

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