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Duration dependence in migration behaviour: cumulative inertia versus stochastic change

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  • I R Gordon
  • I Molho
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    Abstract

    In this paper a new theoretical framework and supporting empirical evidence on the relationship between movement probabilities and length of stay are presented. Individuals' evaluations of the relative value of alternative locations are assumed to evolve stochastically, with a possible tendency either to cumulative inertia or to cumulative stress. In general this yields a nonmonotonic duration function, with probabilities of movement starting at zero, rising and then falling -- a pattern consistent with either cumulative tendency, or neither. A version of the model fitted to data on household movement intentions, from the UK General Household Survey, confirms the hypothesised form of this function and indicates a dominance of cumulative stress over cumulative inertia.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Pion Ltd, London in its journal Environment and Planning A.

    Volume (Year): 27 (1995)
    Issue (Month): 12 (December)
    Pages: 1961-1975

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    Handle: RePEc:pio:envira:v:27:y:1995:i:12:p:1961-1975

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    Web page: http://www.pion.co.uk

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    Cited by:
    1. Mika Haapanen & Hannu Tervo, 2006. "Migration Behaviour and Duration of Residence Spells of Graduating Students in Finland in 1987-2002," ERSA conference papers ersa06p379, European Regional Science Association.
    2. Otrachshenko, Vladimir & Popova, Olga, 2014. "Life (dis)satisfaction and the intention to migrate: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 40-49.

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