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Specifying weights in spatial forecasting models: the results of some experiments

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  • F Stetzer
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    Abstract

    The application of space - time forecasting models requires the specificaiton of a set of place-to-place weights. The existing literature contains several recommendations for this specificaiton. By a series of Monte Carlo simulations, various weighting rules are compared in terms of estimation of model parameters and accuracy of forecasts. It is shown that specification of the weights is important, especially when sample sizes are small and the data autocorrelated. Generally, the effective area of the weight function is more important than its distance decay.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Pion Ltd, London in its journal Environment and Planning A.

    Volume (Year): 14 (1982)
    Issue (Month): 5 (May)
    Pages: 571-584

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    Handle: RePEc:pio:envira:v:14:y:1982:i:5:p:571-584

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    Web page: http://www.pion.co.uk

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    Cited by:
    1. Arbia, Giuseppe & Battisti, Michele & Di Vaio, Gianfranco, 2010. "Institutions and geography: Empirical test of spatial growth models for European regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 12-21, January.
    2. André Matos Magalhães, 2001. "Clubes de Convergência no Brasil: uma Abordagem Com Correção Espacial," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 076, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. Matias Mayor Fernandez & Esteban Fernandez Vazquez & Jorge Rodriguez Valez, 2006. "Spatial Structures and Spatial Spillovers: A GME Approach," ERSA conference papers ersa06p777, European Regional Science Association.
    4. Niebuhr, Annekatrin, 2002. "Spatial dependence of regional unemployment in the European Union," HWWA Discussion Papers 186, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    5. Matías Mayor Fernández & Ana Jesús López Menéndez, 2005. "The spatial shift-share analysis - new developments and some findings for the Spanish case," ERSA conference papers ersa05p659, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Ruiz, Fernando & Gerard, Marcel, 2008. "Is there evidence of strategic corporate tax interaction among EU countries?," MPRA Paper 10094, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Niebuhr, Annekatrin, 2000. "Convergence and the effects of spatial interaction," HWWA Discussion Papers 110, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    8. Rosa Bernadini Papalia & Silvia Bertarelli, 2013. "Identification and Estimation of Club Convergence Models with Spatial Dependence," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(6), pages 2094-2115, November.
    9. Alejandro Diaz-Bautista, 2005. "Convergence and Economic Growth considering Human Capital and R&D Spillovers Convergencia y Crecimiento Economico en Mexico considerando al Capital Humano y derrames en Investigacion y Desarrollo," Urban/Regional 0506012, EconWPA.
    10. Niebuhr, Annekatrin, 2000. "Räumliche Wachstumszusammenhänge - empirische Befunde für Deutschland," HWWA Discussion Papers 84, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    11. Giacomini, Raffaella & Granger, Clive W. J., 2004. "Aggregation of space-time processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1-2), pages 7-26.
    12. Funke, Michael & Niebuhr, Annekatrin, 2000. "Spatial R&D spillovers and economic growth : evidence from West Germany," HWWA Discussion Papers 98, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    13. Sarafidis, Vasilis, 2009. "GMM Estimation of Short Dynamic Panel Data Models With Error Cross-Sectional Dependence," MPRA Paper 25176, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Gian Zaccomer & Pamela Mason, 2011. "A new spatial shift-share decomposition for the regional growth analysis: a local study of the employment based on Italian Business Statistical Register," Statistical Methods and Applications, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 329-356, August.

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