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The Long-run Relationship between Real Exchange Rate and Real Interest Rate in Asian Countries: An Application of Panel Cointegration

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  • Shaista Alam

    (Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi.)

  • Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt

    (Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi.)

  • Azhar Iqbal

    (Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi.)

Abstract

The role of exchange rate policy in economic development has been the subject of much debate and controversy in the development literature. Interest rates and exchange rates are usually viewed as important in the transmission of monetary impulses to the real economy. In the short run the standard view of academics and policy-makers is that a monetary expansion lowers the interest rate and rises the exchange rate, with these price changes then affecting the level and composition of aggregate demand. Frequently, these influences are described as the liquidity effects of monetary expansion, viewed as the joint effect of providing larger quantities of money to the private sector. Popular theories of exchange-rate determination also predict a link between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials. These theories combine the uncovered interest parity relationship with the assumption that the real exchange rate deviates from its long-run level only temporarily. Under these assumptions, shocks to the real exchange rate—which are often viewed as caused by shocks to monetary policy—are expected to reverse themselves over time. This study investigates the long-run relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials using recently developed panel cointegration technique. Although this kind of relationship has been studied by a number of researchers,1 very little evidence in support of the relationship has been reported in the case of developing countries.

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Article provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.

Volume (Year): 40 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 577-602

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Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:40:y:2001:i:4:p:577-602

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  1. Hooper, Peter & Morton, John, 1982. "Fluctuations in the dollar: A model of nominal and real exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-56, January.
  2. Suzanne McCoskey & Chihwa Kao, 1998. "A residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 57-84.
  3. Imad A. Moosa & Razzaque H. Bhatti, 1996. "The European Monetary System and Real Interest Parity: Is there any Connection?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 132(II), pages 223-235, June.
  4. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September.
  6. R. Dornbusch, 1975. "The Theory of Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Policy," Working papers 165, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  7. Imad Moosa & Razzaque Bhatti, 1996. "Does Europe have an integrated capital market? Evidence from real interest parity tests," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(8), pages 517-520.
  8. Moosa, Imad A & Bhatti, Razzaque H, 1996. "Some Evidence on Mean Reversion in ex ante Real Interest Rates," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 177-91, May.
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Cited by:
  1. M. Ali Kemal & Rana Murad Haider, 2004. "Exchange Rate Behaviour after Recent Float: The Experience of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 829-852.
  2. Syed Adnan Haider Ali Shah Bukhari & Muhammad Shahbaz Akmal & Mohammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2006. "Impact of Exchange Market Forces on Pak-Rupee Exchange Rates during Globalization Period: An Empirical Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 121-139, Jan-Jun.

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