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Non-linear Speculative Bubbles in the Pakistani Stock Market

Author

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  • Ehsan Ahmed

    (James Madison University, Harrisonburg, VA, USA.)

  • J. Barkley Rosser, Jr.

    (James Madison University, Harrisonburg, VA, USA.)

Abstract

Since 1987 many stock markets of the world have experienced volatility. This has been true of many emerging stock markets. Our study of daily stock market data from Pakistan between June 1987 and May 1993 finds the results to be consistent with the impression of great volatility and unpredictability thought to be common in such emerging markets. We used the VAR technique to estimate a "presumed" fundamental on stock indices using lagged first differences of natural logs of daily exchange rates and stock indices. We used the Hamilton switching model and associated Walk test to see if such speculative trends were present. We were significantly unable to rule them out. We then tested for ARCH effects, whose presence we failed to reject. We then used ARCHgenerated residuals to apply the BDS test of general non-linear structure. We failed to reject the lack of such non-linear structure quite significantly. Thus, the Pakistani stock market during the period of study seems to have exhibited quite complex dynamics, along with apparently strong trends that may indicate the presence of speculative bubbles. This has many important implications for Pakistani as well as other emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Ehsan Ahmed & J. Barkley Rosser, Jr., 1995. "Non-linear Speculative Bubbles in the Pakistani Stock Market," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 25-41.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:1:p:25-41
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Akbar & Shahid Ali, 2010. "A Test Of The Validity Of The CAPM In Pakistani Equity Market," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 2(1), pages 23-28, April.
    2. Amir Hussain & Zia Obaid & Sajid Afridi, 2011. "Testing of CAPM in An Emerging Economy: A Case Study of Pakistan," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 3(2), pages 143-153, October.
    3. Muhammad Tariq & Dr.Alam Raza & Azizullah & Ghulam Mustafa Shaikh, 2016. "Investing The Pricing Of Exchange Rate Risk In The Stock Market: Evidence From Pakistan Stock Market," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 12(2), pages 87-102.
    4. Fazal Husain, 1997. "The Random Walk Model in the Pakistani Equity Market: An Examination," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 221-240.
    5. Aslam Farid & Javed Ashraf, 1995. "Volatility at Karachi Stock Exchange," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 651-657.
    6. Salman Syed Ali & Khalid Mustafa, 2001. "Testing Semi-strong Form Efficiency of Stock Market," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 651-674.
    7. Javed Iqbal & Aziz Haider, 2005. "Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Evidence From An Emerging Stock Market," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 123-139, Jan-Jun.
    8. Ehsan Ahmed & J. Barkley Rosser Jr. & Jamshed Y. Uppal, 2010. "Emerging Markets and Stock Market Bubbles: Nonlinear Speculation?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 23-40, January.
    9. Attiya Y. Javed & Ayaz Ahmed, 1999. "The Response of Karachi Stock Exchange to Nuclear Detonation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 777-786.
    10. Fazal HUSAIN & Jamshed UPPAL, 1999. "STOCK RETURNS VOLATILITY IN AN EMERGING MARKET: The Pakistani Evidence," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 15, pages 19-40.
    11. Butt, Muhammad Danial & Ahmed, Mumtaz, 2019. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles in Inflation for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 96847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Kausar, Rabia & Qayyum, Abdul, 2018. "How Cash Flow News and Discount Rate News Impact the Unexpected Stock Returns of Energy Firms of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 91165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Butt, Muhammad Danial & Ahmed, Mumtaz, 2019. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles in Inflation for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 96705, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Halari, Anwar & Tantisantiwong, Nongnuch & Power, David. M. & Helliar, Christine, 2015. "Islamic calendar anomalies: Evidence from Pakistani firm-level data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 64-73.

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