Testing for the Onset of Fertility Decline: An Illustration with the Case of Egypt
AbstractThis paper describes and illustrates how the economic household production model can be taken as a frame of reference to test the stage of the fertility transition for a given society. Egypt during the 1970s and early 1980s is taken as the setting to illustrate the test. Egyptian fertility trends from the mid-1960s to the early 1980s puzzled demographers and social scientists. It was not known if Egypt was at the onset of a sustainable fertility decline by the early 1980s. The illustration exercise shows that the Egyptian household fertility behaviour during this period fits poorly with the model specification corresponding to a post-transition society. We find that fertility by the end of the 1970s was not endogenous to other household decisions, and conclude that a sustained decline in fertility was unlikely without this endogeneity. These results agree with previous literature on the fertility transition in Egypt. The paper concludes with limitations of the empirical test presented, laying emphasis on the lessons learned to examine the stage of the fertility transition in any society. The conclusions also highlight the importance of considering the stage of the transition in order to specify fertility models appropriately.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.
Volume (Year): 32 (1993)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- T. Paul Schultz, 2005. "Fertility and Income," Working Papers 925, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
- Tuma, Elias H., 1988. "Institutionalized obstacles to development: The case of Egypt," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(10), pages 1185-1198, October.
- Nelson, Forrest & Olson, Lawrence, 1978. "Specification and Estimation of a Simultaneous-Equation Model with Limited Dependent Variables," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(3), pages 695-709, October.
- Amemiya, Takeshi, 1974. "Multivariate Regression and Simultaneous Equation Models when the Dependent Variables Are Truncated Normal," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(6), pages 999-1012, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Khurram Iqbal).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.