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Modelling International Tourism Demand in Thailand

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Author Info

  • Chukiat Chaiboonsri

    (Bangalore University, India)

  • Prasert Chaitip

    (Chiang Mai University, Thailand)

  • N. Rangaswamy

    (Bangalore University, India)

Abstract

This paper sought to find the short-run and long-run relationships between international tourist arrivals in Thailand with economic variables such as GDP, the price of goods and services, transportation costs, and the exchange rate for the period from 1997(Q1)-2005(Q2). Both the Cointegration techniques based on Johansen and Juselius (1990) and Error Correction Mechanisms based on Engle and Granger concept (1997) were used to find the long-run and short-run relationships of the international tourism demand model for Thailand. This paper used the full six standard method test for unit root tests such as ADF-Test (1979), PP-Test (1997,1999), KPSS-Test (1992), DF-GLS Test (1996), the ERS Point Optimal Test and Ng and Perron (2001). The full six standard method test for unit root test have not previously been used to test unit roots for estimating tourism demand models. The long-run results indicate that growth in income (GDP) of Thailand’s major tourist source markets has a positive impact on international visitor arrivals to Thailand while both transportation cost and exchange rate has a negative impact on international visitor arrivals to Thailand. The findings were consistent with economic theory and the implications of the model can be used for policy making.

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File URL: http://upet.ro/annals/economics/pdf/2009/20090314.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Petrosani, Romania in its journal Annals of the University of Petrosani - Economics.

Volume (Year): 9 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 125-146

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Handle: RePEc:pet:annals:v:9:i:3:y:2009:p:125-146

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Web page: http://www.upet.ro/

Related research

Keywords: Thailand; tourism demand; unit root test; cointegration; error correction model;

References

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  1. Elliott, Graham & Jansson, Michael, 2000. "Testing for Unit Roots with Stationary Covariances," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt47k7z69n, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  2. Pius Odunga & Henk Folmer, 2004. "Profiling Tourists for Balanced Utilization of Tourism-Based Resources in Kenya," Working Papers 2004.23, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  3. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  4. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
  5. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(12), pages 1599-1619.
  6. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. B Ouattara, 2004. "Modelling the Long Run Determinants of Private Investment in Senegal," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0413, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  8. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  9. George Kapetanios, 2003. "A Note on Joint Estimation of Common Cycles and Common Trends in Nonstationary Multivariate Systems," Working Papers 483, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  10. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Modelling the Determinants of International Tourism Demand to Australia," ISER Discussion Paper 0532, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  11. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2000. "A seasonal analysis of Asian tourist arrivals to Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 499-509.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Prasert Chaitip & N. Rangaswamy, 2008. "A Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration Test of the Modeling International Tourism Demand in India," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 8(1), pages 95-124.
  2. Sriboonchitta, Songsak & Chaiboonsri, Chukiat & Chaitip, Prasert & Chaitip, Arreyah & Kovács, Sándor & Balogh, Péter, 2013. "An Investigation On The International Tourists’ Expenditures In Thailand: A Modelling Approach," APSTRACT: Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce, AGRIMBA, vol. 7(1).
  3. repec:rom:campco:v:9:y:2013:i:1:p:220-234 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Prasert Chaitip & Chukiat Chaiboonsri, 2009. "Down Trend Forecasting Method with ARFIMA: International Tourist Arrivals to Thailand," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 9(1), pages 143-150.
  5. Prasert Chaitip & Chukiat Chaiboonsri, 2009. "Thailand’s International Tourism Demand: The ARDL Approach to Cointegration," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 9(3), pages 163-184.

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