International Tourist Arrivals In Thailand: Forecasting With Arfima-Figarch Approach
AbstractForecasting is an essential analytical tool for tourism policy and planning. This paper focuses on forecasting methods based on ARFIMA(p,d,q)-FIGARCH(p,d,q). Secondary data was used to produce forecasts of the number of international tourist arrivals to Thailand for the period of 2009-2010. Research results during this period confirm that the best forecasting method based on the ARFIMA(p,d,q)-FIGARCH(p,d,q) model is ARFIMA(1,-0.45,1)-FIGARCH(1,-0.07,1). Furthermore, this model predicts that the number of international tourist arrivals in Thailand for the period of 2009-2010 will not go up or be constant. If these results can be generalized for future years, then it suggests that both the Thai government sector and also the private tourism industry sector of Thailand need to develop the tourism market of Thailand immediately and also develop tourism products in Thailand urgently.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by University of Petrosani, Romania in its journal Annals of the University of Petrosani - Economics.
Volume (Year): 10 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.upet.ro/
Thailand; ARFIMA-FIGARCH method; International Tourists;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism
You can help add them by filling out this form.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Imola Driga).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.