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Forecasting Short Run Performance of Initial Public Offerings in the Istanbul Stock Exchange

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Author Info

  • Ramazan Aktas

    (Turkish Military Academy)

  • Mehmet Baha Karan

    (Hacettepe University)

  • Kürsat Aydogan

    (Bilkent University)

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    Abstract

    Previous research on IPOs has identified several factors or issue characteristics that play a role in the level of short term underpricing of initial public offerings. Some of those issue features are the firm size, market trend, size of the offer, investment banker reputation, method of intermediation, stock price range and investor type. The objective of this study is to develop a model based on these features to forecast the short term performance of IPOs in the Istanbul Stock Exchange. To this end we divided our sample period into a model building subperiod and a testing subperiod. After identifying 9 issue features that are related to IPO short term pricing, we estimated our models using multiple regression, multiple discriminant and logit methods. The estimated models are then tested against the IPO data in the subsequent period between 1997-2000. The overall predictive ability of the forecasting models can be described as mediocre. In terms of actual abnormal returns obtained from investment strategies based on model predictions, only the logit models beat the outcome of naive strategies, albeit only marginally.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management in its journal Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance and Business Ventures.

    Volume (Year): 8 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 1 (Spring)
    Pages: 69-85

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    Handle: RePEc:pep:journl:v:8:y:2003:i:1:p:69-85

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    Related research

    Keywords: Initial Public Offering; IPO; Turkey;

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Keasey, K & Short, H, 1992. "The underpricing of initial public offerings: Some UK evidence," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 457-466, July.
    2. Reena Aggarwal & Ricardo Leal & Leonardo Hernandez, 1993. "The Aftermarket Performance of Initial Public Offerings in Latin America," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(1), Spring.
    3. Rock, Kevin, 1986. "Why new issues are underpriced," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 187-212.
    4. Ritter, Jay R, 1984. "The "Hot Issue" Market of 1980," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(2), pages 215-40, April.
    5. Allen, Franklin & Faulhaber, Gerald R., 1989. "Signalling by underpricing in the IPO market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 303-323, August.
    6. Muscarella, Chris J. & Vetsuypens, Michael R., 1989. "A simple test of Baron's model of IPO underpricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 125-135, September.
    7. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E., 1977. "A study of debt servicing capacity applying logit analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, February.
    8. Brav, Alon & Gompers, Paul A, 1997. " Myth or Reality? The Long-Run Underperformance of Initial Public Offerings: Evidence from Venture and Nonventure Capital-Backed Companies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1791-1821, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Aydin Yüksel & Asli Yüksel, 2006. "The Link between IPO Underpricing and Trading Volume: Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 11(3), pages 57-78, Fall.

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