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Forecasting Short Run Performance of Initial Public Offerings in the Istanbul Stock Exchange

Author

Listed:
  • Ramazan Aktas

    (Turkish Military Academy)

  • Mehmet Baha Karan

    (Hacettepe University)

  • Kürsat Aydogan

    (Bilkent University)

Abstract

Previous research on IPOs has identified several factors or issue characteristics that play a role in the level of short term underpricing of initial public offerings. Some of those issue features are the firm size, market trend, size of the offer, investment banker reputation, method of intermediation, stock price range and investor type. The objective of this study is to develop a model based on these features to forecast the short term performance of IPOs in the Istanbul Stock Exchange. To this end we divided our sample period into a model building subperiod and a testing subperiod. After identifying 9 issue features that are related to IPO short term pricing, we estimated our models using multiple regression, multiple discriminant and logit methods. The estimated models are then tested against the IPO data in the subsequent period between 1997-2000. The overall predictive ability of the forecasting models can be described as mediocre. In terms of actual abnormal returns obtained from investment strategies based on model predictions, only the logit models beat the outcome of naive strategies, albeit only marginally.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramazan Aktas & Mehmet Baha Karan & Kürsat Aydogan, 2003. "Forecasting Short Run Performance of Initial Public Offerings in the Istanbul Stock Exchange," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 8(1), pages 69-85, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:pep:journl:v:8:y:2003:i:1:p:69-85
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Aydin Yüksel & Asli Yüksel, 2006. "The Link between IPO Underpricing and Trading Volume: Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 11(3), pages 57-78, Fall.
    2. Satta, Giovanni & Notteboom, Theo & Parola, Francesco & Persico, Luca, 2017. "Determinants of the long-term performance of initial public offerings (IPOs) in the port industry," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 135-153.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Initial Public Offering; IPO; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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