Ciclos y determinantes del crecimiento económico: Perú 1950-1996
AbstractThis essay is concerned with Peruvian economic growth and its cycles from 1950 to 1995, and the long stagnation that begins in 1975-1978. The corresponding analysis is based on the hypothesis that the Peruvian economic dynamics responds to the unbalanced character of industrialization and to the behavior of investment that was not affected by the import substitution process. With an investment vector that does not stimulate the domestic market, the growth and the cycles are determined by demand impulses that come from the public sector and/or from those external markets where domestic industrial production is competitive. Since the demand increases are correlated with a greater external deficit, the sustained growth, in the long term, is impossible unless the structural problems of the manufacturing sector are solved. Once the importance of this sector and its significant correlation with other demand determined activities are tested, the data of non-primary output is calculated in order to explain its long run behavior and to test, by co-integration method, the role of the state expenditures in the generation of its cycles and trend. Finally, by estimating the non-primary potential output, the hypothesis of the long run stagnation, associated to the exhaustion of import substitution process, is confirmed.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú in its journal Revista Economía.
Volume (Year): (1997)
Issue (Month): 39-40 ()
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Av. Universitaria 1801, San Miguel, Lima, Perú
Phone: (511) 626-2000 ext. 4950, 4951
Fax: (511) 626-2874
Web page: http://www.pucp.edu.pe/departamento/economia/
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Félix Jiménez, 1997. "Ciclos y determinantes del crecimiento económico: Perú 1950 - 1996 ," Documentos de Trabajo 1997-137, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stephan Gruber).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.