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Financial and political risks in US direct foreign investment

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  • Reid W Click

    (Department of International Business, George Washington University, Washington DC, USA)

Abstract

This paper examines the risk of US direct foreign investments over the period 1982–98 in 59 host countries. The first part of the analysis builds an empirical model to explain the time-series and cross-country patterns of return on capital. The estimation then uses the return on assets (ROA) as a measure of the return on capital, and investigates its determinants. There are four main findings. First, the ROA in a majority of countries does not simply track the worldwide ROA. Second, some cross-country differences are explained by financial risks. Third, unexplained country risk is qualitatively and quantitatively related to unobserved political risk. Fourth, unexplained country risk is also compensated with a higher ROA, enhancing its credibility as a measure of political risk. The unexplained country risk is thus used to calculate a new index of political risk ratings for 56 host countries that may be useful to managers, investors, policymakers, and academics. Journal of International Business Studies (2005) 36, 559–575. doi:10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8400157

Suggested Citation

  • Reid W Click, 2005. "Financial and political risks in US direct foreign investment," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 36(5), pages 559-575, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jintbs:v:36:y:2005:i:5:p:559-575
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Khan, Mashrur Mustaque & Akbar, Mashfique Ibne, 2013. "The Impact of Political Risk on Foreign Direct Investment," MPRA Paper 47283, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R Harvey & Christian T Lundblad & Stephan Siegel, 2014. "Political risk spreads," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 45(4), pages 471-493, May.
    3. Sutsarun Lumiajiak & Sirimon Treepongkaruna & Marvin Wee & Robert Brooks, 2014. "Thai Financial Markets and Political Change," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 5-26, July.
    4. Arslan, Ahmad & Tarba, Shlomo Y. & Larimo, Jorma, 2015. "FDI entry strategies and the impacts of economic freedom distance: Evidence from Nordic FDIs in transitional periphery of CIS and SEE," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 997-1008.
    5. Rodolphe Desbordes, 2010. "Global And Diplomatic Political Risks And Foreign Direct Investment," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 92-125, March.
    6. Hagigi, Moshe & Sivakumar, Kumar, 2009. "Managing diverse risks: An integrative framework," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 286-295, September.
    7. Hassan, Ibne & Chidlow, Agnieszka & Romero-Martínez, Ana M., 2016. "Selection, valuation and performance assessment: Are these truly inter-linked within the M&A transactions?," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 255-266.
    8. Qian Luo & Guohua Fang & Jian Ye & Min Yan & Chengxuan Lu, 2020. "Country Evaluation for China’s Hydropower Investment in the Belt and Road Initiative Nations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-19, October.
    9. Larimo, Jorma & Arslan, Ahmad, 2013. "Determinants of foreign direct investment ownership mode choice: Evidence from Nordic investments in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of East European Management Studies, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 18(2), pages 232-263.
    10. Wei, Qiao & Li, Wen Helena & De Sisto, Marco & Gu, Jinlong, 2020. "What types of top management teams' experience matter to the relationship between political hazards and foreign subsidiary performance?," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 26(4).
    11. Qi, Yaxuan & Roth, Lukas & Wald, John K., 2010. "Political rights and the cost of debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 202-226, February.
    12. Halil Kiymaz, 2013. "Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions and Country Risk Ratings: Evidence From U.S. Financials," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 7(1), pages 17-29.
    13. Zdolsek, Daniel & Kolar, Iztok, 2013. "Management disclosure practices for disaggregated (financial) information in Slovenian unlisted companies," Journal of East European Management Studies, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 18(2), pages 232-263.
    14. Bala Ramasamy & Matthew Yeung, 2010. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Services," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 573-596, April.
    15. Alexander Braun & Marius Fischer, 2018. "Determinants of the Demand for Political Risk Insurance: Evidence from an International Survey," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 43(3), pages 397-419, July.
    16. Suh, Jong Hwan, 2015. "Forecasting the daily outbreak of topic-level political risk from social media using hidden Markov model-based techniques," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 115-132.
    17. Kiymaz, Halil, 2009. "The impact of country risk ratings on U.S. firms in large cross-border acquisitions," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 235-247.
    18. Barbopoulos, Leonidas & Marshall, Andrew & MacInnes, Cameron & McColgan, Patrick, 2014. "Foreign direct investment in emerging markets and acquirers’ value gains," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 604-619.
    19. repec:rdg:wpaper:em-dp2008-61 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Zwinkels, Remco C.J. & Beugelsdijk, Sjoerd, 2010. "Gravity equations: Workhorse or Trojan horse in explaining trade and FDI patterns across time and space?," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 102-115, February.
    21. Eduardsen, Jonas & Marinova, Svetla, 2020. "Internationalisation and risk: Literature review, integrative framework and research agenda," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(3).
    22. Marwa BenGhoul, 2019. "Political Risk and Foreign Direct Investment in Tunisia: The Case of the Services Sector 2004-2016," International Journal of Sustainable Economies Management (IJSEM), IGI Global, vol. 8(3), pages 48-60, July.

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