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Measuring and Analyzing Sovereign Risk with Contingent Claims

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  • Michael Gapen
  • Dale Gray
  • Cheng Hoon Lim
  • Yingbin Xiao
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    Abstract

    This paper develops a comprehensive new framework to measure and analyze sovereign risk. Contingent claims analysis is used to construct a marked-to-market balance sheet for the sovereign and derive a set of forward-looking credit risk indicators that serve as a barometer of sovereign risk. Applications to 12 emerging market economies show the approach to be robust, and the risk indicators are a significant improvement over traditional macroeconomic vulnerability indicators and accounting-based measures. The framework can help policymakers design risk mitigation strategies and rank policy options using a calibrated structural model unique to each economy. IMF Staff Papers (2008) 55, 109–148; doi:10.1057/palgrave.imfsp.9450026; published online 22 January 2008

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

    Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 1 (April)
    Pages: 109-148

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    Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:55:y:2008:i:1:p:109-148

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    Cited by:
    1. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2013. "Measuring financial stress in transition economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 597-611.
    2. Christoph Trebesch, 2009. "The Cost of Aggressive Sovereign Debt Policies: How Much is thePrivate Sector Affected?," IMF Working Papers 09/29, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Riedel, Christoph & Thuraisamy, Kannan S. & Wagner, Niklas, 2013. "Credit cycle dependent spread determinants in emerging sovereign debt markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 209-223.
    4. Christoph Trebesch & Michael G Papaioannou & Udaibir S. Das, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950 - 2010: Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 12/203, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Agostino Tarsitano & Rosetta Lombardo, 2011. "An Exhaustive Coefficient Of Rank Correlation," Working Papers 201111, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza (Ex Dipartimento di Economia e Statistica).
    6. Gorea, Denis & Radev, Deyan, 2014. "The euro area sovereign debt crisis: Can contagion spread from the periphery to the core?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 78-100.
    7. Miroslav Plasil & Ivana Kubicova, 2012. "Contingent Claims Analysis And The Inter-Sector Transmission Of Credit Risk," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2011/2012, chapter 0, pages 129-139 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    8. Dale F. Gray & Elena Loukoianova & Samuel W. Malone & Cheng Hoon Lim, 2008. "A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework: Incorporating Balance Sheets and Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 08/40, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Agostino Tarsitano & Rosetta Lombardo, 2013. "A Coefficient of Correlation Based on Ratios of Ranks and Anti-ranks," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 233(2), pages 206-224, March.
    10. Christoph Riedel & Kannan Thuraisamy & Niklas Wagner, . "Conditional Spread Determinants for Emerging Sovereign Debt," Financial Econometics Series 2012_08, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
    11. Jan Willem van den End & Marco Hoeberichts, 2012. "The interaction between the central bank and government in tail risk scenarios," DNB Working Papers 352, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    12. Kamil Janacek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Michal Hlavacek & Lubos Komarek, 2012. "Impacts Of The Sovereign Default Crisis On The Czech Financial Sector," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2011/2012, chapter 0, pages 118-128 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    13. Udaibir S. Das & Michael G. Papaioannou & Christoph Trebesch, 2010. "Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 10/10, International Monetary Fund.

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