An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts
AbstractThis paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts for a very large cross section of countries. It assesses whether forecasts were unbiased and informationally efficient, characterizes the process whereby WEO forecasts get revised as the predicted period draws closer, and compares the precision of the WEO forecasts to private sector forecasts known as “consensus forecasts” and published by Consensus Economics on a monthly basis. The results suggest that the performance of the WEO forecasts is similar to that of the consensus forecasts. IMF Staff Papers (2007) 54, 1–33. doi:10.1057/palgrave.imfsp.9450007
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Staff Papers.
Volume (Year): 54 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/
Postal: Palgrave Macmillan Journals, Subscription Department, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS, UK
Other versions of this item:
- Allan Timmermann, 2006. "An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 06/59, International Monetary Fund.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007.
CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
6158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Economic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-56, March.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Cet inÃ©branlable optimisme des prÃ©visions de croissance
by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-07-08 17:00:00
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Elizabeth Gale).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.