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Safety from Currency Crashes

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  • Kent Osband

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Caroline Van Rijckeghem

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

As part of a proposed two-stage early warning system, we estimate "safety zones" for fundamentals under which currency crashes are unlikely to occur. We depart from traditional regression-based early warning systems and instead estimate the set of fundamentals for which currency crises never occurred and label this environment "safe or near-safe." For a sample of emerging markets from 1985 through 1998, we are able to classify 47 percent of the observed tranquil environments as safe or near-safe on a 12-month horizon, based on criteria in which external debt and reserves feature heavily. Nonparametric tests indicate that environments we identified as safe or near-safe bear less than a 1 percent risk of a currency crash. The results also pass a number of out-of-sample tests. Copyright 2000, International Monetary Fund

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

Volume (Year): 47 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 4

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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:47:y:2000:i:2:p:4

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References

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  1. Christian B. Mulder & Matthieu Bussière, 1999. "External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 99/88, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
  5. Flood, Robert & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, January.
  6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of death foretold," International Finance Discussion Papers 545, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Cole, Harold L. & Kehoe, Timothy J., 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-1995 debt crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 309-330, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice, 2004. "The Politics Of Debt Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 4683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Theo S. Eicher & Charis Christofides & Chris Papageorgiou, 2012. "Did Established Early Warning Signals Predict the 2008 Crises?," Working Papers UWEC-2012-05, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  3. Yucel, Eray, 2011. "A Review and Bibliography of Early Warning Models," MPRA Paper 32893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Gagnon, Joseph E., 2009. "Currency crashes and bond yields in industrial countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 161-181, February.
  5. Magazzino, Cosimo & Forte, Francesco, 2010. "Optimal size of government and economic growth in EU-27," MPRA Paper 26669, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Andrew Berg & Rebecca N. Coke, 2004. "Autocorrelation-Corrected Standard Errors in Panel Probits," IMF Working Papers 04/39, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2011. "Can Leading Indicators Assess Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis," Working Paper Series rwp11-024, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  8. Richard Hemming & Axel Schimmelpfennig & Michael Kell, 2003. "Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Occasional Papers 218, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Caroline Rijckeghem & Beatrice Weder, 2009. "Political institutions and debt crises," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 138(3), pages 387-408, March.
  10. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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