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Realignment Expectations, Forward Rate Bias, and Intervention in an Optimizing Model of Exchange Rate Adjustment

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  • Peter Isard

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

The paper models an adjustable peg exchange rate arrangement as a policy rule with an escape clause under which the timing and magnitudes of realignments are the outcomes of policy optimization decisions. Under the assumptions that market participants are rational, risk averse, and fully informed about the incentives of policymakers, the analysis focuses on the implications for relating realignment expectations, the interest differential, and the risk premium to the state variables that enter the policy objective function, for modeling the bias in using forward exchange rates to predict future spot rates, and for characterizing the effectiveness of sterilized intervention.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Isard, 1994. "Realignment Expectations, Forward Rate Bias, and Intervention in an Optimizing Model of Exchange Rate Adjustment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(3), pages 435-459, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:41:y:1994:i:3:p:435-459
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Jeanne & Lars E. O. Svensson, 2007. "Credible Commitment to Optimal Escape from a Liquidity Trap: The Role of the Balance Sheet of an Independent Central Bank," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 474-490, March.
    2. Arthur Galego Mendes & Tiago Couto Berriel, "undated". "Central Bank Balance Sheet, Liquidity Trap, and Quantitative Easing," Textos para discussão 638, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    3. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    4. Tronzano, Marco & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2003. "Target zone credibility and economic fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 791-807, July.
    5. Szapary, Gyorgy & Jakab, Zoltan M., 1998. "Exchange Rate Policy in Transition Economies: The Case of Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 691-717, December.
    6. Ozkan, F. Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1998. "A currency crisis model with an optimising policymaker," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 339-364, April.
    7. Delphine Lahet, 2001. "L'occurrence d'une crise financière dans un modèle de troisième génération," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 16(2), pages 179-206.
    8. Avner Bar‐Ilan & Nancy P. Marion, 2009. "A Macroeconomic Perspective on Reserve Accumulation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 802-823, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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