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Long-Term Care: Risk Description of a Spanish Portfolio and Economic Analysis of the Timing of Insurance Purchase

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  • Montserrat Guill�n

    ()
    (Department Econometria, Estad�stica i Economia Espanyola, RFA-IREA, University of Barcelona, Diagonal, 690, Barcelona 08034, Spain.)

  • Jean Pinquet

    ()
    (Ecole Polytechnique, D�partement d'Economie, Palaiseau 91128, France.)

Abstract

This paper analyses the rationale of long-term care (LTC) insurance purchasing from a statistical analysis of insurance data and a life cycle model. We make a short survey of the pros and cons of LTC insurance purchase. Then risk distributions in the occurrence and duration dimension are estimated on a Spanish portfolio. Calendar effects are estimated besides age and gender. These statistical results are integrated in a life cycle model of savings and insurance purchasing. A numerical illustration is also provided, which leads to an optimal age of 40 years for insurance purchase. The Geneva Papers (2008) 33, 659–672. doi:10.1057/gpp.2008.33

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Issues and Practice.

Volume (Year): 33 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 659-672

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Handle: RePEc:pal:gpprii:v:33:y:2008:i:4:p:659-672

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  1. Jeffrey R. Brown & Amy Finkelstein, 2007. "Why is the market for long-term care insurance so small?," NBER Chapters, in: Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar (TAPES), Public Policy and Retirement, pages 1967-1991 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hanming Fang & Michael P. Keane & Dan Silverman, 2008. "Sources of Advantageous Selection: Evidence from the Medigap Insurance Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 303-350, 04.
  3. De Meza, D. & Webb, D.C., 2000. "Advantageous Selection in Insurance Market," Discussion Papers 0007, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
  4. Sloan, Frank A & Norton, Edward C, 1997. "Adverse Selection, Bequests, Crowding Out, and Private Demand for Insurance: Evidence from the Long-Term Care Insurance Market," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 201-19, December.
  5. Christian Gollier, 2004. "The Economics of Risk and Time," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262572249, December.
  6. Leung, Siu Fai, 1994. "Uncertain Lifetime, the Theory of the Consumer, and the Life Cycle Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1233-39, September.
  7. Robert B. Barsky & Miles S. Kimball & F. Thomas Juster & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1995. "Preference Parameters and Behavioral Heterogeneity: An Experimental Approach in the Health and Retirement Survey," NBER Working Papers 5213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Samuelson, Paul A, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 239-46, August.
  9. Gupta, Aparna & Li, Lepeng, 2007. "Integrating long-term care insurance purchase decisions with saving and investment for retirement," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 362-381, November.
  10. Amy Finkelstein & Kathleen McGarry, 2006. "Multiple Dimensions of Private Information: Evidence from the Long-Term Care Insurance Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 938-958, September.
  11. Barsky, Robert B, et al, 1997. "Preference Parameters and Behavioral Heterogeneity: An Experimental Approach in the Health and Retirement Study," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(2), pages 537-79, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Jean Pinquet & Montserrat Guillén & Mercedes Ayuso, 2011. "Commitment and Lapse Behavior in Long-Term Insurance: A Case Study," Post-Print hal-00374303, HAL.
  2. Jean Pinquet, 2008. "Quel avenir pour l'assurance dépendance? Leçons de l'expérience américaine," Post-Print hal-00396151, HAL.

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