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Forecasting the Economic impact of an industrial stoppage using a dynamic, computable general equilibrium model

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  • Glyn Wittwer

    ()
    (Monash University)

  • Peter Dixon

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulations can provide estimates of the economy-wide effects of industrial stoppages. Such estimates could be used in broad discussions of the contribution to economic welfare of improved industrial relations. They could also be used in narrowly focussed discussions, e.g. in the Australian Industrial Relations Commission in a determination under the Workplace Relations Act of the economic damage associated with a specific stoppage. An attractive feature of CGE simulation is that it can capture relevant details of particular circumstances. We illustrate this with a CGE analysis of the effects of a hypothetical stoppage in the Victorian non-residential construction industry. As explained in the paper, our simulation results reflect explicit assumptions about the nature of the industry in which the stoppage occurs, the wage adjustment process and the state of the business cycle.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School in its journal Australian Journal of Labour Economics.

Volume (Year): 7 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 39-51

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Handle: RePEc:ozl:journl:v:7:y:2004:i:1:p:39-51

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Web page: http://business.curtin.edu.au/research/publications/journals/ajle/
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Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium Models Dispute Resolution; Strikes; Arbitration; and Mediation (collective bargaining) Labor-Management Relations; Trade Unions; and Collective Bargaining; Public Policy Macroeconomics; Consumption; Saving; Production; Employment; and Investment; Forecasting and Simulation;

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Cited by:
  1. Giesecke, James A. & Madden, John R., 2013. "Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  2. L. J. Perry, 2005. "A Long-Term Perspective On Industrial Disputes In Australia: 1913–2003," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 24(3), pages 263-279, 09.
  3. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2003. "State-level Dynamic CGE Modeling for Forecasting and Policy Analysis," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-82, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  4. Rodriguez, U-Primo E., 2007. "State-of-the-Art in Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modelling with a Case Study of the Philippines," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 20(1).

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