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Production Flexibility, Stochastic Separation, Hedging, and Futures Prices

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  • Kamara, Avraham

Abstract

We study a dynamic model where uncertainty about interim output adjustments causes producers to face price, cost and output uncertainty. Stochastically separable production decisions are independent of the producer's risk preferences and expectations and are based on the prevailing futures price as a certain output price. Conditions under which futures contracts achieve stochastic separation are established. Optimal hedging and maturity structure of futures contracts, equilibrium futures prices, and the effects of futures trading on output are studied. The systematic risk premium depends on the product of the futures beta and the covariance of the market return with production revenues. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamara, Avraham, 1993. "Production Flexibility, Stochastic Separation, Hedging, and Futures Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(4), pages 935-957.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:6:y:1993:i:4:p:935-57
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    Cited by:

    1. Jane Black & Ian Tonks, 2000. "Time series volatility of commodity futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 127-144, February.
    2. Christos Floros, 2007. "Price and Open Interest in Greek Stock Index Futures Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 6(2), pages 191-202, May.
    3. Jian Yang & R. Brian Balyeat & David J. Leatham, 2005. "Futures Trading Activity and Commodity Cash Price Volatility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1‐2), pages 297-323, January.
    4. Karthika P. DEVAN & Johney JOHNSON, 2021. "A pragmatic evaluation of the interconnection between currency futures return volatility, open interest and volume," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(626), S), pages 289-296, Spring.
    5. Lioui, Abraham & Eldor, Rafael, 1998. "Optimal spreading when spreading is optimal," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 277-301, September.
    6. Shylaja P & Anver Sadath C, 2016. "Futures Trading: Informational Content of Open Interest and Trading Volume on Futures Price," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 3(2), pages 156-162.
    7. Meenakshi Malhotra & Dinesh Kumar Sharma, 2016. "Volatility Dynamics in Oil and Oilseeds Spot and Futures Market in India," Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers, , vol. 41(2), pages 132-148, June.
    8. Lioui, Abraham, 1999. "Spreading currency forwards: why and how?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 305-317, February.

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