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Changing Risk Perception and the Time-Varying Price of Risk

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  • Roland Füss
  • Thomas Gehrig
  • Philipp B. Rindler

Abstract

This article investigates the impact of changes in risk perception on bond markets triggered by the 2007–08 financial crisis. Using a methodology novel to empirical finance, we quantify the increase in credit spreads caused by changes in risk pricing and changes in risk factors. The lasting increase in credit spreads is almost exclusively due to time-varying prices of risk. We interpret this as a change in risk perception which provides a possible solution to the credit spread puzzle. Default premia spiked during the crisis and did not return to their pre-crisis levels. Liquidity premia increased during and after the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Roland Füss & Thomas Gehrig & Philipp B. Rindler, 2016. "Changing Risk Perception and the Time-Varying Price of Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1549-1585.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:20:y:2016:i:4:p:1549-1585.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rof/rfv046
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gehrig, Thomas & Iannino, Maria Chiara, 2021. "Did the Basel Process of capital regulation enhance the resiliency of European banks?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    2. Malliaropulos, Dimitris & Migiakis, Petros, 2018. "The re-pricing of sovereign risks following the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 39-56.
    3. Gehrig, Thomas & Sögner, Leopold & Westerkamp, Arne, 2018. "Making Parametric Portfolio Policies Work," CEPR Discussion Papers 13193, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Ferri, Giovanni & Murro, Pierluigi & Peruzzi, Valentina & Rotondi, Zeno, 2019. "Bank lending technologies and credit availability in Europe: What can we learn from the crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 128-148.
    5. Gehrig, Thomas & Iannino, Maria Chiara, 2021. "Did the Basel Process of capital regulation enhance the resiliency of European banks?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_016 is not listed on IDEAS

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