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A Long-Run Risks Model of Asset Pricing with Fat Tails

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  • Zhiguang (Gerald) Wang
  • Prasad V. Bidarkota

Abstract

We explore the effects of fat tails on the equilibrium implications of the long-run risks model of asset pricing by introducing innovations with dampened power law to consumption and dividends growth processes. We estimate the model structural parameters by maximum likelihood. We find that the stochastic volatility model with fat tails can generate implied risk premium, expected risk free rate and their volatilities comparable to the magnitudes observed in data. The model with fat tails leads to a significant increase in implied risk premia over the benchmark Gaussian model, but similar values for other equilibrium quantities of interest. Copyright 2010, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by European Finance Association in its journal Review of Finance.

Volume (Year): 14 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 409-449

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Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:14:y:2010:i:3:p:409-449

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  1. Ravi Bansal, 2007. "Long-Run Risks and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 13196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Liuren Wu, 2006. "Dampened Power Law: Reconciling the Tail Behavior of Financial Security Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1445-1474, May.
  3. Bidarkota, Prasad V. & Dupoyet, Brice V., 2007. "The impact of fat tails on equilibrium rates of return and term premia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 887-905, March.
  4. Ian W. Martin, 2013. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing with Higher Cumulants," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(2), pages 745-773.
  5. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
  6. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
  7. Mariano M. Croce & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2007. "Investor Information, Long-Run Risk, and the Duration of Risky Cash-Flows," NBER Working Papers 12912, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  9. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, 08.
  10. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1994. "Large Shocks, Small Shocks, and Economic Fluctuations: Outliers in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 181-200, April-Jun.
  11. Geweke, John, 2001. "A note on some limitations of CRRA utility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 341-345, June.
  12. Prasad Bidarkota & Khurshid M. Kiani, 2003. "On Business Cycle Asymmetries in G7 Countries," Working Papers 0308, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
  13. Prasad V. Bidarkota & Brice V. Dupoyet & J. Huston McCulloch, 2005. "Asset Pricing with Incomplete Information under Stable Shocks," Working Papers 0514, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
  14. Philippe Weil, 1989. "The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Riskfree Rate Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 2829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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