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When It Cannot Get Better or Worse: The Asymmetric Impact of Good and Bad News on�Bond�Returns in Expansions and Recessions

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  • Alessandro Beber
  • Michael W. Brandt

Abstract

We examine empirically the response of bond returns and their volatility to good and bad macroeconomic news during expansions and recessions. We find that macroeconomic announcements are most important when they contain bad news for bond returns in expansions and, to a lesser extent, good news in contractions. In expansions, the bond market responds most strongly to bad news in non-farm payrolls, while in recessions good news about inflation is relatively more important. We also document that macroeconomic news impacts the volatility of bond returns at all maturities by increasing jump intensities and altering the jump size distribution. Copyright 2010, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rof/rfp006
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by European Finance Association in its journal Review of Finance.

Volume (Year): 14 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 119-155

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Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:14:y:2010:i:1:p:119-155

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Cited by:
  1. Germán López-Espinosa & Antonio Rubia & Laura Valderrama & Antonio Moreno, 2012. "Systemic Risk and Asymmetric Responses in the Financial Industry," IMF Working Papers 12/152, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Dick van Dijk & Robin L. Lumsdaine & Michel van der Wel, 2014. "Market Set-Up in Advance of Federal Reserve Policy Decisions," NBER Working Papers 19814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Löffler, Gunter & Posch, Peter N, 2013. "Wall Street’s bailout bet: Market reactions to house price releases in the presence of bailout expectations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5147-5158.
  4. Rangel, José Gonzalo, 2011. "Macroeconomic news, announcements, and stock market jump intensity dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1263-1276, May.
  5. Khaled Amira & Abderrahim Taamouti & Georges Tsafack, 2009. "What Drives International Equity Correlations? Volatility or Market Direction?," Economics Working Papers we094122, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  6. Anne Opschoor & Michel van der Wel & Dick van Dijk & Nick Taylor, 2011. "On the Effects of Private Information on Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-077/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  7. León, Ángel & Sebestyén, Szabolcs, 2012. "New measures of monetary policy surprises and jumps in interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2323-2343.
  8. Anne Opschoor & Michel van der Wel & Dick van Dijk & Nick Taylor, 2011. "On the Effects of Private Information on Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-077/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  9. Nieto, Belén & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2011. "The volatility of consumption-based stochastic discount factors and economic cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2197-2216, September.
  10. Roger K. Loh & René M. Stulz, 2014. "Is Sell-Side Research More Valuable in Bad Times?," NBER Working Papers 19778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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