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Portfolio Crowding-Out, Empirically Estimated

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  • Jeffrey A. Frankel

Abstract

This paper tests hypotheses regarding the parameters in investors' asset-demand functions. The hypothesis that federal bonds are closer substitutes for equity than for money implies "portfolio crowding out" by federal borrowing. Regression studies of asset-demand functions have needed to impose prior beliefs to obtain precise and plausible estimates for the parameters. This paper uses a MLE technique that dominates regression in that it makes full use of the constraint that the parameters are not determined arbitrarily but rather are determined by mean-variance optimization on the part of the investor. The striking conclusion is that portfolio effects are close to zero.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1985. "Portfolio Crowding-Out, Empirically Estimated," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(Supplemen), pages 1041-1065.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:100:y:1985:i:supplement:p:1041-1065.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/qje/100.Supplement.1041
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas E. Conine & Michael B. McDonald & Maurry Tamarkin, 2017. "Estimation of relative risk aversion across time," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(21), pages 2117-2124, May.
    2. Charles Bean & James Symons, 1989. "Ten Years of Mrs. T," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 13-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mr. Serkan Arslanalp & Mr. Takahiro Tsuda, 2012. "Tracking Global Demand for Advanced Economy Sovereign Debt," IMF Working Papers 2012/284, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Thomas B. King, 2013. "A Portfolio-Balance Approach to the Nominal Term Structure," Working Paper Series WP-2013-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    5. Christopher J. Green & Victor Murinde, 2003. "Flow of funds: implications for research on financial sector development and the real economy," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(8), pages 1015-1036.
    6. Elmendorf, Douglas W & Kimball, Miles S, 2000. "Taxation of Labor Income and the Demand for Risky Assets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(3), pages 801-833, August.
    7. Joseph E. Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian P. Sack, 2011. "Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(May), pages 41-59.
    8. D'Ecclesia, Rita L. & Zenios, Stavros A., 2005. "Estimation of asset demands by heterogeneous agents," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 386-398, March.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Bruno Ducoudre, 2008. "Structure par terme des taux d’intérêt et anticipations de la politique économique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5221, Sciences Po.
    11. Engel, Charles & Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Froot, Kenneth A. & Rodrigues, Anthony P., 1995. "Tests of conditional mean-variance efficiency of the U.S. stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 3-18, March.
    12. Bruno Ducoudré, 2005. "Fiscal policy and interest rates," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    13. McClain, Katherine T. & Humphreys, H. Brett & Boscan, Atahualpa, 1996. "Measuring risk in the mining sector with ARCH models with important observations on sample size," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 369-391, December.
    14. Daniele Checchi, 1992. "What are the Real Effects of Liberalizing International Capital Movements?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 83-125, February.
    15. Pesaran, B. & Robinson, G. N., 1997. "Optimal funding rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 329-345.
    16. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1987. "New Directions in the Relationship Between Public and Private Debt," NBER Working Papers 2186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. G. C. Lim & Stuart S. Kells, 1995. "Portfolio Implications of an Equity Rain in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(4), pages 367-378, December.
    18. Visser, H., 1990. "Crowding out and the government budget," Serie Research Memoranda 0006, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    19. Antulio N Bomfim, 2003. "Optimal portfolio allocation in a world without Treasury securities," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 10-21, June.
    20. D. Peter Broer & W. Jos Jansen, 1998. "Dynamic Portfolio Adjustment and Capital Controls: A Euler Equation Approach," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(4), pages 902-921, April.
    21. Harrison, Richard, 2017. "Optimal quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 678, Bank of England.
    22. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Liquidity Trap," NBER Working Papers 9968, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2009. "The World Needs Further Monetary Ease, Not an Early Exit," Policy Briefs PB09-22, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    24. Patrick Artus & Florence Legros & Éric Bleuze & Jean-Paul Nicolaï, 1991. "Épargne des ménages, choix de portefeuille et fiscalité en France," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 42(4), pages 663-700.

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