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How Complicated Does the Model Have to Be?

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Author Info
Krugman, Paul

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Abstract

Simple macroeconomic models based on IS-LM have become unfashionable because of their lack of micro-foundations, and are in danger of being effectively forgotten by the profession. Yet while thinking about micro-foundations is a productive enterprise, complex models based on such foundations are not necessarily more accurate than simple, ad-hoc models. Three decades of attempts to base aggregate supply on rational behaviour have not displaced the Phillips curve; inter-temporal models of consumption do not offer reliable predictions about aggregate demand. Meanwhile, the ease of use of small models makes them superior for many practical applications. So we should not allow them to be driven out of circulation. Copyright 2000 by Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Review of Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 16 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 (Winter)
Pages: 33-42
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Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:16:y:2000:i:4:p:33-42

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  1. Holinski Nils & Kool Clemens & Muysken Joan, 2009. "Taking Home Bias Seriously: Absolute and Relative Measures Explaining Consumption Risk-Sharing," Research Memoranda 035, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Claudio H. dos Santos, 2004. "Keynesian Theorizing During Hard Times: Stock-Flow Consistent Models as an Unexplored "Frontier" of Keynesian Macroeconomics," Economics Working Paper Archive 408, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
  3. Claudio Dos Santos, 2004. "Keynesian Theorizing During Hard Times: SStock-Flow Consistent Models as an Unexplored 'Frontier' of Keynesian Macroeconomics'," Macroeconomics 0405023, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Mauro Boianovsky & Roger Backhouse, 2006. "Whatever Happened To Microfoundations?," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 76, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  5. Heinz-Peter Spahn, 2009. "The New Keynesian Microfoundations of Macroeconomics," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 317/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mauro Boianovsky, 2003. "The IS-LM Model and the Liquidity Trap Concept: from Hicks to Krugman," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] a13, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  7. Yiannis Stournaras, 2005. "Aggregate Supply and Demand, the Real Exchange Rate and Oil Price Denomination," Working Papers 26, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  8. Heinz-Peter Spahn, 2004. "Learning in Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy: The Case of an Open Economy," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 236/2004, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, . "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  10. Joaquim Pinto de Andrade & Maria Luiza Falcao Silva & Hans Michael Trautwein, 2003. "Prospects of Economic Integration and Incompatible Monetary Policies Among Mercosul Members," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] c65, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  11. Thilak Ranaweera, 2004. "Ghost of the financing gap: an overlooked aspect of the aid debate," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 637-652. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ian McDonald, 2008. "Behavioural Macroeconomics And Wage And Price Setting: Developing Some Early Insights Of John Maynard Keynes And Joan Robinson," CAMA Working Papers 2009-11, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  13. Pierpaolo Benigno, 2009. "New-Keynesian Economics: An AS-AD View," NBER Working Papers 14824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Holinski Nils & Kool Clemens & Muysken Joan, 2009. "International Portfolio Balance – Modeling the External Adjustment Process," Research Memoranda 033, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
  15. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2006. "The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer," NBER Working Papers 12349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Claudio H. Dos Santos, 2004. "Keynesian Theorizing During Hard Times: Stock-Flow Consistent Models as an Unexplored 'Frontier' of Keynesian Macroeconomics," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 0406001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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