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Long-Term Real Interest Rates: Evidence on the Global Capital Market

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Author Info
Breedon, Francis
Henry, Brian
Williams, Geoffrey

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Abstract

The steady removal of capital controls, and the consequent increase in international capital flows has led to a growing belief that there is now one global capital market with a single world real interest rate at its core. We review the evidence on international real interest rate behaviour using alternative measures of real interest rates, including those obtained from the growing set of inflation-adjusted government bonds. Using a range of statistical tests we find that it is hard to argue that real interest rates are converging to single world rate--though international factors are important. Moreover, the large and persistent differences in real interest rates across countries cannot be explained in terms of real exchange-rate expectations. Macroeconomic indicators from the countries concerned appear to play some role in accounting for these differences. Copyright 1999 by Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Review of Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 15 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 (Summer)
Pages: 128-42
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Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:15:y:1999:i:2:p:128-42

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  1. Christian Upper & Andreas Worms, 2003. "Real long-term interest rates and monetary policy: a cross-country perspective," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 234-257 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  2. Stefano Schiavo, 2005. "Euro bonds: in search of financial spillovers," Department of Economics Working Papers 0502, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bruno Ducoudré, 2005. "Fiscal policy and interest rates," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  4. Abhisek Banerjee & Manmohan Singh, 2006. "Testing Real Interest Parity in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 06/249, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Peter Claeys & Rosina Moreno & Jordi Suriñach, 2008. "Fiscal policy and interest rates: the role of financial and economic integration," IREA Working Papers 200810, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Sep 2008. [Downloadable!]
  6. Brigitte Desroches & Michael Francis, 2007. "World Real Interest Rates: A Global Savings and Investment Perspective," Working Papers 07-16, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bandholz, Harm & Clostermann, Joerg & Seitz, Franz, 2007. "Explaining the US Bond Yield Conundrum," MPRA Paper 2386, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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