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Long-Term Real Interest Rates: Evidence on the Global Capital Market

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  • Breedon, Francis
  • Henry, Brian
  • Williams, Geoffrey

Abstract

The steady removal of capital controls, and the consequent increase in international capital flows has led to a growing belief that there is now one global capital market with a single world real interest rate at its core. We review the evidence on international real interest rate behaviour using alternative measures of real interest rates, including those obtained from the growing set of inflation-adjusted government bonds. Using a range of statistical tests we find that it is hard to argue that real interest rates are converging to single world rate--though international factors are important. Moreover, the large and persistent differences in real interest rates across countries cannot be explained in terms of real exchange-rate expectations. Macroeconomic indicators from the countries concerned appear to play some role in accounting for these differences. Copyright 1999 by Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Review of Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 15 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 (Summer)
Pages: 128-42

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Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:15:y:1999:i:2:p:128-42

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Web page: http://oxrep.oupjournals.org/

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Cited by:
  1. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2012. "Interest rate co-movements, global factors and the long end of the term spread," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 183-192.
  2. Abhisek Banerjee & Manmohan Singh, 2006. "Testing Real Interest Parity in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 06/249, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Luigi Bonatti & Annalisa Cristini, 2007. "Breaking the stability pact: was it predictable?," Department of Economics Working Papers 0714, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  4. Brigitte Desroches & Michael Francis, 2010. "World real interest rates: a global savings and investment perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(22), pages 2801-2816.
  5. Claeys, Peter & Moreno, Rosina & Suriñach, Jordi, 2012. "Debt, interest rates, and integration of financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 48-59.
  6. Chinn, Menzie David & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2003. "The Euro Area and World Interest Rates," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2nb2h4zr, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  7. Bruno Ducoudré, 2005. "Fiscal policy and interest rates," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  8. Harm Bandholz & Jorg Clostermann & Franz Seitz, 2009. "Explaining the US bond yield conundrum," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 539-550.
  9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alessandro Girardi, 2011. "Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 3693, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Stefano Schiavo, 2005. "Euro bonds: in search of financial spillovers," Department of Economics Working Papers 0502, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  11. Catherine Mathieu & Jérôme Creel & Henri Sterdyniak & Bruno Ducoudre, 2005. "Doit-on oublier la politique budgétaire? Une analyse critique de la nouvelle théorie anti-keynésienne des finances publiques," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1769, Sciences Po.
  12. Peter Claeys & Rosina Moreno & Jordi Suriñach, 2008. "Fiscal policy and interest rates: the role of financial and economic integration," IREA Working Papers 200810, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Sep 2008.
  13. Stefano Schiavo, 2005. "Euro bonds: in search of financial spillovers," Sciences Po publications 2, Sciences Po.
  14. Steven B. Kamin, 2010. "Financial globalization and monetary policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 1002, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Christian Upper & Andreas Worms, 2003. "Real long-term interest rates and monetary policy: a cross-country perspective," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 234-257 Bank for International Settlements.

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