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Fiscal consolidation after the Great Recession: the role of composition

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  • Iván Kataryniuk
  • Javier Vallés

Abstract

We have examined the fiscal consolidation episodes in a group of OECD countries from 2009 to 2014. The range of the estimated short-term fiscal multiplier runs from 1.2 to 2.0, larger than those obtained in more ‘normal times’, implying that the contractionary effect has been larger in depressed environments. Nevertheless, we also found that revenue measures have a higher and more persistent real impact than expenditure measures, which is more consistent with the influence of current consolidations on the expectations about the future path of fiscal policies (the expectations channel). This result suggests that expenditure cuts are less harmful for the economy than tax hikes.

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  • Iván Kataryniuk & Javier Vallés, 2018. "Fiscal consolidation after the Great Recession: the role of composition," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(2), pages 563-585.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:70:y:2018:i:2:p:563-585.
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    2. Castro, Vítor, 2017. "The impact of fiscal consolidations on the functional components of government expenditures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 138-150.
    3. Patrick Blagrave & Giang Ho & Ksenia Koloskova & Mr. Esteban Vesperoni, 2017. "Fiscal Spillovers: The Importance of Macroeconomic and Policy Conditions in Transmission," IMF Spillover Notes 2017/002, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Eduardo Garzón Espinosa & Bibiana Medialdea García & Esteban Cruz Hidalgo, 2021. "Fiscal Policy Approaches: An Inquiring Look From The Modern Monetary Theory," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 999-1022, October.
    5. Kalaš Branimir & Andrašić Jelena & Pjanić Miloš, 2016. "Aspect of Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from Serbia," The European Journal of Applied Economics, Sciendo, vol. 13(2), pages 21-29, October.
    6. Anna Kalbhenn & Livio Stracca, 2020. "Mad about Austerity? The Effect of Fiscal Consolidation on Public Opinion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(2-3), pages 531-548, March.
    7. Nektarios A. Michail & Christos S. Savva & Demetris Koursaros, 2017. "Size Effects of Fiscal Policy and Business Confidence in the Euro Area," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-15, November.
    8. van der Wielen, Wouter, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: Evidence using real-time data for the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 302-321.
    9. Vítor Castro, 2018. "Functional components of public expenditure, fiscal consolidations, and economic activity," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 124-150, March.
    10. Michael G. Arghyrou, 2015. "The Greek Crisis and Financial Assistance Programmes: An Evaluation," CESifo Working Paper Series 5591, CESifo.
    11. Shobande Olatunji Abdul & Shodipe Oladimeji Tomiwa, 2019. "New Keynesian Liquidity Trap and Conventional Fiscal Stance: An Estimated DSGE Model," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 33(1), pages 152-169, January.
    12. Shobande Olatunji Abdul, 2020. "Fiscal Rule in Africa," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 112-120, January.
    13. Jarmila Botev & Annabelle Mourougane, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation: What Are the Breakeven Fiscal Multipliers?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(3), pages 295-316.
    14. Vitor Castro, 2016. "On the behaviour of the functional components ofgovernment expenditures during fiscal consolidations," NIPE Working Papers 11/2016, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    15. Samardzija, Visnja & Jurlin, Krešimir & Ivana, Skazlić, 2018. "Značaj Europskog semestra za reforme ekonomskih politika u Hrvatskoj i odabranim novim članicama EU-a. U: Višnja Samardžija (ur.). Izazovi provedbe europskih politika u Hrvatskoj. IRMO: Zagreb [The," MPRA Paper 89337, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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