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Thailand's investment-driven boom and crisis

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  • David Vines
  • Peter Warr

Abstract

Analyses of the Asian crisis of 1997 have focused excessively on the financial sector, especially the banks. The role of the real sector in exposing the financial system to stress has been under-emphasized. This paper provides a real-sector explanation for Thailand's crisis, demonstrating the role of the investment boom of the preceding decade. We build a full macroeconomic model of the Thai economy and use it to demonstrate that the investment boom and its changing composition generated record growth but also increased macroeconomic vulnerability. This vulnerability, combined with the trigger of an export slowdown in 1996, produced the crisis. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 55 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 440-466

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Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:55:y:2003:i:3:p:440-466

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Cited by:
  1. Peter Warr, 2006. "Productivity Growth in Thailand and Indonesia: How Agriculture Contributes to Economic Growth," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200606, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Feb 2006.
  2. Hesse, Heiko, 2007. "Monetary policy, structural break, and the monetary transmission mechanism in Thailand," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4248, The World Bank.
  3. Peter Warr, 2009. "Poverty Reduction through Long-term Growth: The Thai Experience," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 8(2), pages 51-76, June.
  4. Olaf Hübler & Lukas Menkhoff & Chodechai Suwanaporn, 2008. "Financial Liberalisation in Emerging Markets: How Does Bank Lending Change?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 393-415, 03.
  5. Jongwanich, Juthathip & Kohpaiboon, Archanun, 2008. "Private Investment: Trends and Determinants in Thailand," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1709-1724, October.

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