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Exchange Rate Realignments and Realignment Expectations

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  • Stansfield, Ed
  • Sutherland, Alan

Abstract

One view of exchange-rate realignments is that they undermine the credibility of a fixed exchange rate by creating expectations of further realignments. This paper presents an alternative model where the private sector attaches a higher probability to a realignment when there is spare capacity in the economy. The model shows that a realignment can enhance the credibility of the fixed rate by reducing the level of spare capacity. However, it is also shown that, if realignment expectations are formed in this way, a fixed rate system may seriously destabilize the economy. Copyright 1995 by Royal Economic Society.

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  • Stansfield, Ed & Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Exchange Rate Realignments and Realignment Expectations," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 211-228, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:47:y:1995:i:2:p:211-28
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernd Kempa & Michael Nelles, 1999. "Misalignments of real exchange rates and the credibility of nominal currency bands," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(4), pages 613-628, December.
    2. Ghezzi, Piero, 1996. "Backward-Looking Contracts, Credibility and Inflation Convergence," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233441, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.

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