Long Memory and the Term Structure of Risk
AbstractThis paper explores the implications of asset return predictability for long-term portfolio choice when return-forecasting variables are fractionally integrated. For important predictor variables, like the dividend-price ratio, and nominal and real interest rates, we estimate orders of integration around 0.8. This leads to substantial increases of the estimated long-term risk of stocks, bonds, and cash compared to estimates obtained from a stationary VAR. Results are sensitive to the inclusion of the short-term nominal interest rate in the prediction equation of excess stock returns. Jointly with the dividend-price ratio it has significant predictive power, but contrary to the dividend-price ratio the nominal interest rate does not induce mitigating effects through mean reversion. Copyright The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org., Oxford University Press.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Society for Financial Econometrics in its journal Journal of Financial Econometrics.
Volume (Year): 6 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (Fall)
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Other versions of this item:
- Schotman, Peter & Tschernig, Rolf & Budek, Jan, 2008. "Long Memory and the Term Structure of Risk," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 427, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
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- Tschernig, Rolf & Weber, Enzo & Weigand, Roland, 2014. "Long- versus medium-run identification in fractionally integrated VAR models," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 122, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
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- Daniela Osterrieder, 2013. "Interest Rates with Long Memory: A Generalized Affine Term-Structure Model," CREATES Research Papers 2013-17, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Carlo A. Favero & Andrea Tamoni, 2010. "Demographics and the Econometrics of the Term Structure of Stock Market Risk," Working Papers 367, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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