Long Memory and the Term Structure of Risk
AbstractThis paper explores the implications of asset return predictability for long-term portfolio choice when return-forecasting variables are fractionally integrated. For important predictor variables, like the dividend-price ratio, and nominal and real interest rates, we estimate orders of integration around 0.8. This leads to substantial increases of the estimated long-term risk of stocks, bonds, and cash compared to estimates obtained from a stationary VAR. Results are sensitive to the inclusion of the short-term nominal interest rate in the prediction equation of excess stock returns. Jointly with the dividend-price ratio it has significant predictive power, but contrary to the dividend-price ratio the nominal interest rate does not induce mitigating effects through mean reversion. Copyright The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org., Oxford University Press.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Society for Financial Econometrics in its journal Journal of Financial Econometrics.
Volume (Year): 6 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (Fall)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK
Fax: 01865 267 985
Web page: http://jfec.oxfordjournals.org/
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Schotman, Peter & Tschernig, Rolf & Budek, Jan, 2008. "Long Memory and the Term Structure of Risk," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 427, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2009.
"Are Stocks Really Less Volatile in the Long Run?,"
NBER Working Papers
14757, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Luis Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno, .
"Uncovering the U.S. Term Premium: An Alternative Route,"
Faculty Working Papers
12/07, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Moreno, Antonio, 2012. "Uncovering the US term premium: An alternative route," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1181-1193.
- Daniela Osterrieder & Peter C. Schotman, 2012. "The Volatility of Long-term Bond Returns: Persistent Interest Shocks and Time-varying Risk Premiums," CREATES Research Papers 2012-35, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Tschernig, Rolf & Weber, Enzo & Weigand, Roland, 2014.
"Long- versus medium-run identification in fractionally integrated VAR models,"
University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems
122, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
- Tschernig, Rolf & Weber, Enzo & Weigand, Roland, 2014. "Long- versus medium-run identification in fractionally integrated VAR models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 299-302.
- Tschernig, Rolf & Weber, Enzo & Weigand, Roland, 2013. "Long- versus medium-run identification in fractionally integrated VAR models," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 476, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
- Carlo A. Favero & Andrea Tamoni, 2010. "Demographics and the Econometrics of the Term Structure of Stock Market Risk," Working Papers 367, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Daniela Osterrieder, 2013. "Interest Rates with Long Memory: A Generalized Affine Term-Structure Model," CREATES Research Papers 2013-17, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.