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Inequality Constraints in the Fractionally Integrated GARCH Model

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Author Info
Christian Conrad
Berthold R. Haag

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Abstract

In this article we derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the nonnegativity of the conditional variance in the fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (p, d, q) (FIGARCH) model of the order p ≤ 2 and sufficient conditions for the general model. These conditions can be seen as being analogous to those derived by Nelson and Cao (1992, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 10, 229--235) for the GARCH(p, q) model. However, the inequality constraints which we derive for the FIGARCH model illustrate two remarkable properties of the FIGARCH model which are in contrast to the GARCH model: (i) even if all parameters are nonnegative, the conditional variance can become negative and (ii) even if all parameters are negative (apart from d), the conditional variance can be nonnegative almost surely. In particular, the conditions for the (1, d, 1) model substantially enlarge the sufficient parameter set provided by Bollerslev and Mikkelsen (1996, Journal of Econometrics 73, 151--184). The importance of the result is illustrated in an empirical application of the FIGARCH(1, d, 1) model to Japanese yen versus U.S. dollar exchange rate data. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jjfinec/nbj015
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Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Journal of Financial Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 4 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 413-449
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Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:4:y:2006:i:3:p:413-449

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  1. Christian Conrad & Menelaos Karanasos, 2008. "Negative Volatility Spillovers in the Unrestricted ECCC-GARCH Model," KOF Working papers 08-189, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  2. Trino-Manuel Ñíguez, 2008. "Volatility and VaR forecasting in the Madrid Stock Exchange," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 169-196, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Christian Conrad, 2007. "Non-negativity Conditions for the Hyperbolic GARCH Model," KOF Working papers 07-162, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  4. Richard T. Baillie & Claudio Morana, 2007. "Modeling Long Memory and Structural Breaks in Conditional Variances: an Adaptive FIGARCH Approach," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 11-2007, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. J. Kim & A. Kartsaklas & M. Karanasos, 2005. "The volume–volatility relationship and the opening of the Korean stock market to foreign investors after the financial turmoil in 1997," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 245-271, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Richard T. Baille & Claudio Morana, 2009. "Investigating Inflation Dynamics and Structural Change with an Adaptive ARFIMA Approach," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 06-2009, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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