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Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Private Investment: Analytical Issues and Some Lessons for Africa

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  • Serven, Luis

Abstract

A recent, but rapidly growing, literature has focused on the impact of uncertainty and instability on the adoption of fixed investment projects, showing that if the latter are costly or impossible to reverse, uncertainty can become a powerful investment deterrent. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, to review the recent analytical and empirical literature on irreversible investment, drawing its implications for macroeconomic policy. Second, to gauge the practical importance of the uncertainty-investment link, particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa. To this end, the paper presents empirical evidence on the negative association between investment performance and instability measures using a large cross-country time-series data set. The comparative evidence suggests that uncertainty and instability are important factors behind Africa's poor investment record over the last two decades. Copyright 1997 by Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) in its journal Journal of African Economies.

Volume (Year): 6 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3 (Supplement)
Pages: 229-68

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Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:6:y:1997:i:3:p:229-68

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Cited by:
  1. Presbitero, Andrea F., 2006. "The debt-growth nexus in poor countries: a reassessment," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2006 22, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  2. Gul, Adnan, 2008. "Is external debt an effective way of bringing economic reforms?," MPRA Paper 10979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Mohn, Klaus & Osmundsen, Petter, 2008. "Asymmetry and uncertainty in capital formation: An application to oil investment," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/13, University of Stavanger.
  4. Gul, Adnan, 2008. "Pakistan’s Public Debt: The shocks and aftershocks," MPRA Paper 11427, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Dearmon, Jacob & Grier, Robin, 2011. "Trust and the accumulation of physical and human capital," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 507-519, September.
  6. David Stasavage, 2000. "Private Investment and Political Uncertainty," STICERD - Development Economics Papers - From 2008 this series has been superseded by Economic Organisation and Public Policy Discussion Papers 25, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  7. Rodolphe Desbordes & Vincent Vicard, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment and Bilateral Investment Treaties an International Political Perspective," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne bla07045, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  8. Rune Jansen Hagen, 2002. "Marginalisation in the Context of Globalisation: Why Is Africa so Poor?," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 28, pages 147-179.
  9. Gode, Constantino J., 2001. "Sovereign Debt and Uncertainty in the Mozambican Economy," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  10. Patrick Guillaumont, 2010. "Assessing the Economic Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States and the Least Developed Countries," Working Papers id:2625, eSocialSciences.
  11. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 1999. "On The Economic Vulnerability Of Low Income Countries révisé, cf 2000.16," Working Papers 199916, CERDI.
  12. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
  13. Pargal, Sheoli, 2003. "Regulation and private sector investment in infrastructure - evidence from Latin America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3037, The World Bank.
  14. Desbordes, Rodolphe, 2007. "The sensitivity of U.S. multinational enterprises to political and macroeconomic uncertainty: A sectoral analysis," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 732-750, December.
  15. Oivind Anti Nilsen & Fabio Schiantarelli, 1996. "Zeroes and Lumps in Investment: Empirical Evidence on Irreversibilities and Non-Convexities," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 337., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2000.
  16. Nikolaj Malchow-Moeller & Bo Jellesmark Thorsen, . "A Dynamic Agricultural Household Model with Uncertain Income and Irreversible and Indivisible Investments under Credit Constraints," Economics Working Papers 2000-7, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  17. Guillaumont, Patrick, 2008. "An Economic Vulnerability Index: Its Design and Use for International Development Policy," Working Paper Series RP2008/99, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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