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Mega-Deals: What Consequences for SSA?

Author

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  • Houssein Guimbard
  • Maëlan Le Goff

Abstract

The SSA countries are excluded from the mega-deals, free trade agreements (FTA) currently under negotiations between several large economies (EU–USA, EU–Japan, China–Japan–Korea, Trans-Pacific Partnership and ASEAN+6). As SSA exports remain dependent on these large markets, SSA countries could undergo important economic impacts. Using a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model, we find that mega-deals would have a negative impact on the welfare of SSA countries. Regional integration (through the negotiation of the ‘Tripartite’ FTA, which gathers, 26 African countries) might limit these losses, but SSA countries that are not involved still undergo negative consequences. A continental regional trade agreement involving all SSA countries would counterbalance the negative impacts of the mega-deals. We also show that openness of SSA countries towards Asia could be a potential solution to avoid trade diversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Houssein Guimbard & Maëlan Le Goff, 2017. "Mega-Deals: What Consequences for SSA?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 26(2), pages 223-255.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:26:y:2017:i:2:p:223-255.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jae/ejw029
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jean‐Christophe Bureau & Houssein Guimbard & Sébastien Jean, 2019. "Agricultural Trade Liberalisation in the 21st Century: Has It Done the Business?," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 3-25, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    mega-deals; regional integration; trade policies; computable general equilibrium; Sub-Saharan Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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