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Inflation Dynamics in the CEMAC Region

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  • Carlos Caceres
  • Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro
  • Darlena Tartari

Abstract

This paper analyses inflation dynamics in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) using a constructed dataset for country-specific commodity price indices and panel cointegrated vector autoregressive models. Imported commodity price shocks are significant in explaining inflation in the region. In most CEMAC countries, the largest effect of global food and fuel prices occurs after four or five quarters in non-core inflation and then decays substantially over time. Second-round effects are significant only in Cameroon and to a lesser extent in the Republic of Congo. Copyright 2013 , Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) in its journal Journal of African Economies.

Volume (Year): 22 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 239-275

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Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:22:y:2013:i:2:p:239-275

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References

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  1. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policies in the CEMAC Region," IMF Working Papers 11/205, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  3. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
  4. Tidiane Kinda, 2011. "Modeling Inflation in Chad," IMF Working Papers 11/57, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Alfredo Baldini & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, 2011. "Fiscal and Monetary Determinants of Inflation in Low-Income Countries: Theory and Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa-super- †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 20(3), pages 419-462, June.
  6. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  7. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  8. Kerstin Gerling & Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos, 2011. "Inflation Uncertainty and Relative Price Variability in WAEMU Countries," IMF Working Papers 11/59, International Monetary Fund.
  9. David Coady & Taimur Baig & Joseph Ntamatungiro & Amine Mati, 2007. "Domestic Petroleum Product Prices and Subsidies," IMF Working Papers 07/71, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Mario Mansour & Michael Keen, 2009. "Revenue Mobilization in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 09/157, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Simeon Coleman, 2008. "Inflation persistence in the Franc Zone: evidence from disaggregated prices," Working Papers 2008/16, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
  12. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Mohamed El Harrak & Antonio David & Lorraine Ocampos & Marshall Mills, 2011. "Oil Spill(over)s," IMF Working Papers 11/102, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
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Cited by:
  1. Lledó, Victor & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2013. "Fiscal Policy Implementation in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 79-91.

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