Why is there no cannery in 'Cannery Row'? Exploring a behavioral simulation model of population extinction

Available ecological models of organizations do not provide satisfactory explanation for population extinction. In this article, we search for a minimal set of assumptions needed to expand the range of dynamic behaviors of the ecological model of density dependence to admit extinction while preserving its original insight. The revised version of the model builds on two core assumptions. The first is that organizational populations are linked to their environments through feedback processes of resource generation and consumption. As a consequence, the carrying capacity for an organizational population changes systematically with its density. The second assumption is that organizational vital rates respond with delay to changes in the level of available resources. As a consequence, organizational founding and mortality rates are affected by expectations that decision makers form about the future state of their environment. Using computer simulation, we test these assumptions and show that the relative speed at which processes of resource regeneration and consumption happen, and the speed at which expectations about future levels of resources are revised jointly determine a wide range of evolutionary trajectories that admit population extinction as one distinct possibility. The model is validated using multivariate sensitivity analysis techniques. We discuss the implications of our findings in the broader context of the current debate on the implications of selective sampling in the study of organizational populations. Copyright 2012 The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Associazione ICC. All rights reserved., Oxford University Press.