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A Safety-First Approach to Dynamic Cropping Decisions

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Author Info

  • van Kooten, G Cornelis
  • Young, Douglas L
  • Krautkraemer, Jeffrey A

Abstract

A risk-sensitive optimal flexible cropping plan for spring barley in southeastern Washington state is identified by stochastic dynamic programming. State transformation equations are determined from data generated by a process simulation model. Katoaka's safety-first criterion is proposed as an operational procedure for discounting payoff values for differential riskiness. Stronger short-run risk aversion leads to the use of more conservative optimal flexcrop strategies which require higher threshold spring soil moisture levels for cropping. The dynamically optimal barley flexcrop strategies generate similar expected net returns but decrease soil less relative to a fixed winter wheat-fallow rotation; however, annual income risk increases. Copyright 1997 by Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics in its journal European Review of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 24 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 47-63

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Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:24:y:1997:i:1:p:47-63

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Cited by:
  1. Michael Sattinger, 2010. "The Markov Consumption Problem," Discussion Papers 10-03, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  2. Blank, Steven C. & Erickson, Kenneth W. & Moss, Charles B., 2005. "Profit Patterns Across American Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 30(02), August.
  3. Upadhyay, Bharat Mani & Smith, Elwin G. & Clayton, George & Harker, Neil, 2004. "Risk Efficiency Of Alternate Canola Management Decisions," NAREA-CAES Conference, June 20-23, 2004, Halifax, Nova Scotia 34193, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society & Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association.
  4. Tadesse, Dawit & Blank, Steven C., 2003. "Cultivar Diversity: A Neglected Risk Management Strategy," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(02), August.
  5. Kaplan, Jonathan D., 2001. "Prevention Versus Utilization Of Excess Nutrients From Animal Feeding Operations:The Case Of Managing Nutrient Uncertainty," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20533, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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