The U.S. Productivity Slowdown: A Peak through the Structural Break Window
AbstractThis paper provides a formal test of the null hypothesis of a unit root in the log-level of labor productivity against the alternative of linear trend stationarity with a one-time structural break in the level and slope of the trend at an a priori unknown date. Using some newly developed time series tests, the authors show that the log-level of productivity is more accurately modeled as following a deterministic trend with a regime shift rather than as a unit root process. Some implications of the results for detrending and for testing cointegration relationships between productivity and other variables are discussed. Copyright 1999 by Oxford University Press.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Economic Inquiry.
Volume (Year): 37 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
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- Smyth, Russell & Inder, Brett, 2004. "Is Chinese provincial real GDP per capita nonstationary?: Evidence from multiple trend break unit root tests," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-24.
- Patrick Francois & Joanne Roberts, 2000.
"Contracting Productivity Growth,"
jorob-99-02, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- Patrick Francois & Joanne Roberts, 2003. "Contracting Productivity Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 59-85.
- Patrick Francois & Joanne Roberts, 2003. "Contracting Productivity Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 59-85, January.
- Pelaez, Rolando F., 2004. "Dating the productivity slowdown with a structural time-series model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 253-264, May.
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