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Inflation and Elections: Theory and Evidence for Six OECD Economies

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  • Carlsen, Fredrik

Abstract

This paper examines the relation between postelection inflation and the incumbent's reelection chances using data for fifty elections in six OECD economies. The author finds that postelection inflation is above average if the election race is close but not if the incumbent's election prospects are very good or very poor. The theoretical part of the paper shows that this result is consistent with rational political business cycle models. Copyright 1999 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlsen, Fredrik, 1999. "Inflation and Elections: Theory and Evidence for Six OECD Economies," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 120-135, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:37:y:1999:i:1:p:120-35
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    Cited by:

    1. Block, Steven A. & Vaaler, Paul M., 2004. "The price of democracy: sovereign risk ratings, bond spreads and political business cycles in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 917-946, October.

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