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The Market for Motion Pictures: Rank, Revenue, and Survival

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Author Info
De Vany, Arthur S
Walls, W David

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Abstract

Every motion picture is an innovation that competes for theater screens and audiences during its brief life against a changing array of imperfect substitutes. The authors analyze a large sample of motion pictures as an evolving rank tournament of survival and death. The results indicate that the failure rate of motion pictures is time-dependent and survival time is strongly related to the number of initial bookings. Weekly box office revenue is highly convex in rank, which is consistent with S. Rosen's (1981) superstar phenomenon. The authors' results have implications for motion picture licensing arrangements, which have been severely restricted by U.S. court decisions. Copyright 1997 by Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Economic Inquiry.

Volume (Year): 35 (1997)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 783-97
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Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:35:y:1997:i:4:p:783-97

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  1. Gordon H. Hanson & Chong Xiang, 2008. "Testing the Melitz Model of Trade: An Application to U.S. Motion Picture Exports," NBER Working Papers 14461, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. David E. Giles, 2005. "Survival of the Hippest: Life at the Top of the Hot 100," Econometrics Working Papers 0507, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Eva Deuchert & Kossi Adjamah & Florian Pauly, 2005. "For Oscar Glory Or Oscar Money?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 159-176, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Donald Vandegrift & Abdullah Yavas & Paul Brown, 2007. "Incentive effects and overcrowding in tournaments: An experimental analysis," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 345-368, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Darlene C. Chisholm & George Norman, 2006. "When to Exit a Product: Evidence from the U. S. Motion-Picture Exhibition Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 57-61, May. [Downloadable!]
  6. James Jozefowicz & Jason Kelley & Stephanie Brewer, 2008. "New Release: An Empirical Analysis of VHS/DVD Rental Success," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(2), pages 139-151, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Randy Nelson & Clifford Reid & Owen Gilmore, 2007. "An Analysis of the Out-of-Market Gap for DVDs in the U.S," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 303-323, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Lesley Chiou, 2005. "The Timing of Movie Releases: Evidence from the Home Video Industry," Occidental Economics Working Papers 4, Occidental College, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2006. [Downloadable!]
  9. W. D. Walls, 2008. "Screen Wars, Star Wars, and Sequels: Nonparametric Reanalysis of Movie Profitability," Working Papers 2008-28, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 24 Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
  10. Arthur De Vany & W. Walls, 1999. "Uncertainty in the Movie Industry: Does Star Power Reduce the Terror of the Box Office?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 285-318, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Arthur Vany & W. Walls, 2007. "Estimating the Effects of Movie Piracy on Box-office Revenue," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 291-301, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. W. Walls, 2003. "John Sedgwick: 2001, Popular Filmgoing in 1930s Britain: A Choice of Pleasures," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 298-301, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. E. Canterbery & A. Marvasti, 2001. "The U.S. Motion Pictures Industry: An Empirical Approach," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 81-98, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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