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The Market for Motion Pictures: Rank, Revenue, and Survival

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Author Info
De Vany, Arthur S
Walls, W David

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Abstract

Every motion picture is an innovation that competes for theater screens and audiences during its brief life against a changing array of imperfect substitutes. The authors analyze a large sample of motion pictures as an evolving rank tournament of survival and death. The results indicate that the failure rate of motion pictures is time-dependent and survival time is strongly related to the number of initial bookings. Weekly box office revenue is highly convex in rank, which is consistent with S. Rosen's (1981) superstar phenomenon. The authors' results have implications for motion picture licensing arrangements, which have been severely restricted by U.S. court decisions. Copyright 1997 by Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Economic Inquiry.

Volume (Year): 35 (1997)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 783-97
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Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:35:y:1997:i:4:p:783-97

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  1. David E. Giles, 2005. "Survival of the Hippest: Life at the Top of the Hot 100," Econometrics Working Papers 0507, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Darlene C. Chisholm & George Norman, 2006. "When to Exit a Product: Evidence from the U. S. Motion-Picture Exhibition Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 57-61, May.
  3. W.D. Walls, 2008. "Screen Wars, Star Wars, and Sequels: Nonparametric Reanalysis of Movie Profitability," Working Papers 2008-28, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 24 Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
  4. Lesley Chiou, 2005. "The Timing of Movie Releases: Evidence from the Home Video Industry," Occidental Economics Working Papers 4, Occidental College, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2006. [Downloadable!]
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