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Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience

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Author Info
Adam Geršl
Tomáš Holub

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Abstract

This article discusses the role of foreign exchange interventions in the inflation-targeting regime, focusing on the Czech experience since 1998. We find some evidence that the interventions had a statistically significant, but short lived and economically not very important, impact on the koruna's exchange rate and its volatility. We also discuss consistency of the interventions with the inflation-targeting framework. All the Czech intervention episodes are judged to be consistent with the inflation targets and output developments, but for two episodes not fully consistent regarding the mix of monetary conditions. (JEL E42, E44, E52, E58, E65, F31) Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Contemporary Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 24 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 475-491
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Handle: RePEc:oup:coecpo:v:24:y:2006:i:4:p:475-491

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & Andre Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Working Papers 10019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kouri, Pentti J K, 1976. " The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments in the Short Run and in the Long Run: A Monetary Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 78(2), pages 280-304.
  4. Jonathan Kearns & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions: The Australian Case," NBER Working Papers 9062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Anna J. Schwartz, 2000. "The Rise and Fall of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention," NBER Working Papers 7751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Martin Cihak & Tomas Holub, 2003. "Price Convergence to the EU; What Do the 1999 ICP Data Tell Us?," Working Papers 2003/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Priscilla Chiu, 2003. "Transparency versus constructive ambiguity in foreign exchange intervention," BIS Working Papers 144, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  9. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. David Romer, 2000. "Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 149-169, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko, 2003. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Developing and Transition Economies: Results of a Survey," IMF Working Papers 03/95, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershaeuser, Timo, 2001. "Managed Floating: Understanding the New International Monetary Order," CEPR Discussion Papers 3064, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Alexis Derviz, 2003. "Components of the Czech Koruna Risk Premium in a Multiple-Dealer FX Market," Working Papers 2003/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  15. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1984. "On the effects of sterilized intervention : An analysis of weekly data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 133-150, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Alina Carare & Andrea Schaechter & Mark R. Stone & Marc Zelmer, 2002. "Establishing Initial Conditions in Support of Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 02/102, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  17. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Popper, Helen & Montgomery, John D., 2001. "Information sharing and central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 295-316, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Roberto Pereira Guimarães & Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko & Cem Karacadag, 2003. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Elements of Best Practice," IMF Working Papers 03/152, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Adam Geršl, 2006. "Testing the Effectiveness of the Czech National Bank’s Foreign-Exchange Interventions," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 56(09-10), pages 398-415, September. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jarko Fidrmuc & Roman Horváth, 2006. "Credibility of Exchange Rate Policies in Selected EU New Members: Evidence from High Frequency Data," Working Papers IES 2006/28, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
  3. Horvath, Roman, 2006. "Modelling Central Bank Intervention Activity under Inflation Targeting," MPRA Paper 914, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Balazs Egert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0615, Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  5. Meixing Dai, 2006. "Inflation-targeting under a Managed Exchange Rate: the Case of the Chinese Central Bank," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 199-219, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Roman Horváth, 2007. "Estimating Time-Varying Policy Neutral Rate in Real Time," Working Papers IES 2007/01, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
  7. Herman kamil, 2008. "Is Central Bank Intervention Effective Under Inflation Targeting Regimes? The Case of Colombia," IMF Working Papers 08/88, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Balázs Égert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication & Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp846, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  9. Balazs Egert & Lubos Komarek, 2005. "Foreign Exchange Interventions and Interest Rate Policy in the Czech Republic: Hand in Glove?," Working Papers 2005/07, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Ales Bulir, 2003. "Some Exchange Rates Are More Stable than Others; Short-Run Evidence from Transition Countries," Working Papers 2003/05, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Balázs Égert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," Working Papers 134, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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